Following the high of the first Test, a convincing defeat in the second brought back familiar memories of England’s past series in India. A fourth-innings collapse, hundreds for India’s newest future stars and an injury to England’s first-pick spinner, the nuts and bolts of the scoreline look like they should construct a similar result.

In 2021, having won by over 200 runs in the first Test, two familiar batting collapses saw India strike back by 317 runs in the second. Again, business as usual. But the current series is at a split-off point. Its trajectory could emulate that of three years ago, or it could deviate in a different direction entirely.

The pitches

The third Test was the definitive point in the 2021 series. On a ragged turner, 338 runs were scored across the first three innings. While Joe Root took five wickets in six overs in India’s first innings, Axar Patel and R Ashwin returned match figures of 18-136 between them. The pitch wasn’t quite as violent in the fourth Test, but another 18 England wickets still fell to spin.

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It’s an obvious point that the pitches and how quickly they deteriorate from here on out will be a major factor in the current series. It’s why in both Test matches so far, as soon as a ball spun on day one, the commentator’s ears and volume pricked up. But, while possible, it’s unlikely that the pitches for the remaining Test matches will break up as dramatically as they did three years ago.

In 2021, the pitches for the final three Tests felt like a reaction to the opening game, as if India were saying ‘well done for beating us on a flat track, but let’s see how you get on when it’s turning’. This time that isn’t an option in the same way, because, while the first two Tests have been played on excellent pitches, they have also aided the spinners noticeably. India can’t guarantee victory by making it spin.

Then there’s the venues for the upcoming games. Rajkot will host the third Test match and, on the limited basis of the only two Tests ever played at the ground, there has historically been just about enough on offer for seamers as well as spinners at the venue. England’s first Test there in 2016 saw seven wickets fall to pace in a match in a drawn runfest. Following the trend in this series, while the wicket in the first Test offered a significant amount of turn, Jasprit Bumrah and James Anderson in the second Test were key. At Dharamshala, which will host the fourth Test, 13 of the 32 wickets that fell in the only other Test played at the venue (India v Australia 2017) fell to pace.

The batting

England finding a way to win on a surface which turned a fair amount this time round is significant. Their one win in 2021 came on a turgid surface where Root ground out a match-winning knock in the first innings. Ollie Pope did similar in Hyderabad, but the crucial difference is he did so in the third innings of the match on a pitch that was breaking up. In the entirety of the 2021 series, there was only one occasion on which an England batter crossed 50 in the second innings. In the first two Tests of this series, both Pope and Zak Crawley have second-innings half centuries.

From one point of view, England’s batting looks to have the same frailties as last time. Despite his quiet start, Root is still the most likely batter to make a big score. Victory in the first Test was based on one freakish effort both times. Outside of the top three, England have had only one half-century, from Ben Stokes in the first Test. The potential for a dramatic collapse at any minute remains, with the added threat of Bumrah this time an extra headache.

From another, England are much more well-equipped this time. In 2021, aside from Root’s double ton, there were only five other scores of fifty or more by England players across all four Tests, with five players reaching more than 100 runs in the series. From the first two Tests in 2023, excluding Pope’s century, England have already crossed the threshold of five run-scorers into three figures, with three fifty-plus scores. The speed at which England now score their runs, while bringing risk, is allowing their batters to make consistent starts. In the absence of reliable match-winning knocks, finding a way to score just enough to stay in the game for longer is a significant difference from 2021.

Then there’s India’s batters. Virat Kohli’s continued absence is undeniably damaging. While Yashasvi Jaiswal and Shubman Gill showed the danger they present at Vizag, the potential for instability is still there. Jaiswal’s 207 in the second Test was the only score of more than 37 in the innings, and India’s sub-400 total felt like a below-par effort. Similarly, in the second, Gill’s century stood out among a litany of starts.

Across four Tests in 2021, excluding centuries, there were ten scores of more than 50 from India players. So far in 2024, that figure currently stands at three. Shreyas Iyer is out of the series. KS Bharat is a significant downgrade on Rishabh Pant. Rohit Sharma is not quite the force he was a couple of years ago. There are question marks over KL Rahul and Ravindra Jadeja’s availability. The gap between the batting units is smaller than it was last time.

The spinners

Another factor that needs to be considered is the reduced impact India’s spin attack has had so far. In 2021, Axar was the definitive factor in India’s dominance from the second Test onwards. Making his debut in Chennai, he went on to take 27 wickets at an absurd average of 10.59 in the series. Ashwin finished the series with a 32 wickets. Of England’s spinners in that series, only Jack Leach took more than ten.

This time, taking the data at face value, the gap between England’s ability to take wickets with spin and India’s is narrower. Thirty-three Indian wickets have fallen to spin in the first two Tests in comparison to 23 from England. Both side’s spinners have combined averages of between 30 and 40, but England’s are noticeably ahead. England’s spinners have also exerted more control – every India tweaker has leaked runs at a rate greater than each of England’s slow bowlers. England’s spinners are experienced, but they’ve managed to find a way to hold their own, and England’s batting has put India’s vaunted attack under pressure.

None of this means England are likely to pull off a result similar to 2012 by the end of the series. India’s dominance at home, the potential return of some of their big guns later in the series, and England’s relative volatility in performance all point towards an end result more similar to 2021 on the cards. But there’s no denying that England have found a way to at least compete where most thought they wouldn’t. And, despite an identical scoreline at equal points, there’s more reason to anticipate a closer series than three years ago.