Despite England putting in their best performance of the series, predicting the make-up of their XI for the series finale at Hobart is far from straightforward due to a combination of fluctuating form and a growing injury list.

Change at the top?

Speaking to the press in between the third and fourth Tests, England assistant coach Graham Thorpe intimated that Rory Burns was in need of a technical reconfiguration before he gets his next opportunity in Test cricket, should that ever arise. And while there is merit in Thorpe’s assessment of the 31-year-old Surrey opener who averages 30.92 after 31 Tests, England may well revert to Burns to displace the out-of-form Haseeb Hameed.

Hameed’s numbers this series make grim reading. His best score across eight innings is 27 and he hasn’t reached double figures since the series openers; from four Tests, he averages exactly 10. Burns is probably more capable of registering a score of note at this point – a return to the Surrey captain would not only be pragmatic, but also kind to Hameed for whom another appearance could do more longterm harm than good.

Who takes the gloves?

England’s middle-order engine room of Stokes, Bairstow and Buttler were all carrying injuries during their final day resistance at Sydney. Buttler has already been ruled out of the remainder of the tour while there are still doubts over the fitness of Stokes and Bairstow. Sam Billings – who has been representing Sydney Thunder in the Big Bash League – has been called up to the squad as cover. Ollie Pope kept ably on the penultimate day at the SCG and represents another alternative with the gloves. Bairstow, too, is a possibility to keep wicket, but given the nature of his own injury – a damaged thumb – there is no guarantee that he will be able to take the gloves at Hobart even if he is deemed fit enough to play as a batter. Should Bairstow keep, either Pope or Dan Lawrence could come into the side as specialist batters.

What happens to the middle-order if Stokes and/or Bairstow are unfit?

This is reasonably straightforward due to the scarcity of options in the squad. The two spare middle-order batters in the squad are Lawrence and Pope, while Billings is another option to bat at six or seven. There is a scenario where England field a five-six-seven combination of Pope, Lawrence and Billings, though given Root’s post-match comments about Stokes and Bairstow, it appears likely the pair will make Hobart even if they’re not 100 per cent fit.

What happens if Stokes is fit enough to bat but not to bowl?

At this stage, it appears unlikely that Stokes will be fit enough to bowl at Hobart although with the fiery Durham all-rounder, you never know. England have rarely fielded sides with only four bowlers under Root’s captaincy. The last time they did so was the Nottingham Test against India last summer after which they recalled Moeen Ali to bat seven and perform the role of the side’s sole frontline spinner.

When Stokes played as a specialist batter against Pakistan in 2020, England still fielded five frontline bowling options with Chris Woakes batting at seven and Dom Bess at eight. Recalling Woakes is an option for the Hobart Test. Though his bowling hasn’t been particularly penetrative this tour, he is the only frontline bowler (other than Stokes) who can realistically bat as high as seven. He could slot in at seven in place of the injured Buttler with Bairstow taking the gloves at six.

The alternative would be for England to go in without an all-rounder and field just four frontline bowlers.

What about the rest of the bowling attack?

England have made at least one change to their bowling attack ahead of every Test so far this series. It’s hard to predict what they’ll do at Hobart; Broad will surely stay in the side after his SCG five-for while Anderson has been their bowler of the series so is another who is likely to remain in the team barring any fitness issues. England might decide that utlitising Mark Wood for a third straight Test is a risk not worth taking, but that, like it did at Adelaide, would leave England with a quite a ‘samey’ attack with at least three right-arm medium fast bowlers operating at similar speeds to each other.

Jack Leach should retain his spot in the XI, though England might be tempted to opt for Bess in his stead to help bolster their batting should they opt to bat Woakes at seven.