What results do South Africa need to make it to the World Test Championship final next year? Read on to find out.
England were defeated by Pakistan in the second Test of their bilateral series on Friday, in Multan. The 152-run loss has effectively ended England's hopes of making it to the World Test Championship final.
This means the current top two of India and Australia and third-placed Sri Lanka are realistically in the race for the final. England's loss has now opened the door for South Africa, currently fifth in the table, to make a charge for the top two.
South Africa have six matches remaining – two against each of Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan. They play Bangladesh away from home, but the other four are all at home.
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The lowest possible points percentage for South Africa, if they lose all six Tests, is 19.44. The highest possible they can achieve is 69.44, by winning all six (these do not include any possible points deducted for slow over rates). In order to qualify for the final, South Africa have to secure a higher points percentage than two of the three sides ahead of them.
From South Africa's point of view, the two home matches against Sri Lanka are the most vital – giving them a chance to boost their own score while reducing that of a direct competitor.
| Team | Matches | Won | Lost | Drawn | Points deducted | Points | PCT |
| India | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 98 | 74.24% |
| Australia | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 90 | 62.50% |
| Sri Lanka | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 60 | 55.56% |
| England | 18 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 19 | 93 | 43.06% |
| South Africa | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 38.89% |
| New Zealand | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 37.50% |
| Bangladesh | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 33 | 34.38% |
| Pakistan | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 28 | 25.92% |
| West Indies | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 18.52% |
Will five wins out of six be enough for South Africa?
If South Africa beat Sri Lanka 2-0, that means Sri Lanka's maximum possible points percentage is 53.85, which they can achieve by sweeping Australia 2-0 at home.
This would mean South Africa can afford to lose one match outside this series (taking them to 61.11) and still overtake Sri Lanka. This is only in the case of South Africa winning 2-0 here. Even if they draw 1-1, they run the risk of being overtaken by Sri Lanka even if they win their other five matches.
But even then, they would still need to overtake one more side.
One saving grace for South Africa is that because Australia will play against both India and Sri Lanka, there is no situation in which all three of these sides reach their current maximum possible points percentage.
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If the Proteas win five of their remaining matches, including both against Sri Lanka, they will give themselves an excellent chance to secure qualification. However, even this may not be enough.
Even in the event that they win five out of six matches, including both against Sri Lanka, South Africa can end up in third place if the following scenario unfolds – India beat New Zealand 3-0 or 2-1 at home, Australia beat Sri Lanka 2-0 away, and the Border-Gavaskar Trophy finishes 3-2 in Australia's favour. This would send India and Australia through ahead of South Africa.
Therefore, in order to qualify for the final without depending on other results, South Africa will need to win six out of six matches.
Minimum requirement: Sweep Sri Lanka 2-0, lose no more than one other match
In summary, the ideal scenario for South Africa would be to win all six of their remaining Tests, something which goes without saying.
Failing that, they must beat Sri Lanka 2-0 at home and lose no more than one other match to give themselves the next-best shot of qualifying. The third-best scenario is five wins, with a singular loss against Sri Lanka (or a draw for a slightly better chance).
They can qualify with four wins, but that would be leaving too much up to chance. As far as South Africa are concerned, five wins including a 2-0 win over Sri Lanka must be the minimum target for now.
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