Four teams are still in the race for the two berths in the World Test Championship 2023-25 final after the draw at Brisbane.
After securing a 185-run lead in the first innings, Australia went for quick runs in pursuit of a declaration on the fifth day. Pat Cummins closed the innings on 89-7, after 18 overs of batting, setting India 275 in a maximum of 54 overs. However, it rained again after India reached 8-0 in 2.1 overs, and the Test match was called off after a while.
It was only the second drawn Test in 2024, after the West Indies-South Africa game at Port of Spain. That, too, was hit by rain.
Australia’s PCT dropped to 58.89 and India’s PCT to 55.88 after the draw. They held on to the second and third positions on the points table, but moved further away from table topper South Africa’s 63.33.
Schedule for India and Australia
India’s run in the WTC league phase will end with this Test series. They play two Tests here, at Melbourne and Sydney.
Australia, however, will play two more Tests, both in Galle against Sri Lanka.
Which teams are likeliest to qualify?
South Africa have two Tests left, against Pakistan at home. If they draw one of these and lose the other, they will reach 60.61, which will guarantee them a spot in the final (Australia can go past them, but India cannot go beyond 60.53 and Sri Lanka beyond 53.85).
Two wins will take India to 60.53 and guarantee them a berth in the final. If they win one and draw one, they will reach 57.02, they will have to hope Sri Lanka secure a minimum of one draw from two Tests and keep Australia to 55.26 or less. However, if India win one and lose one, they will reach only 55.26: in that case they will be eliminated unless Sri Lanka win by at least 1-0 (Australia 53.51).
Australia, on the other hand, need to keep denying India meeting the criterion mentioned above. That should be enough for them.
There is an extremely unlikely scenario in which South Africa can be eliminated as well. A 0-2 defeat against Pakistan will keep South Africa to 52.78. A 2-0 win against Australia will take Sri Lanka to 53.85, while there are multiple permutations in which one of Australia (despite the defeat in Sri Lanka) and India can also finish above 52.78.
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