In 2020/21, a second-string Indian side became the first team to win a Test match against Australia at Brisbane since 1988/89, ending one of Test cricket’s most enduring streaks. The West Indies followed suit three seasons later.

However, the Gabba continues to remain one of the most difficult venues for visiting sides. Australia have won 42 of the 67 Tests at the venue and lost only 10, giving touring sides a win-loss ratio of 0.238 – the lowest at any “away” venue to have hosted 50 Tests. Drop that cut-off to 20 Tests and the Gabba is still at third place, after the National Stadium in Karachi and SuperSport Park in Centurion.

It is at this venue that Rohit Sharma won the toss and opted to field, something touring teams have done only 15 times. Of these, they have lost nine and drawn four. The only two wins came in the 1980s.

In the first, Joel Garner, Malcolm Marshall, Michael Holding, and Courtney Walsh shared all 20 wickets against a side that had lost Greg Chappell, Dennis Lillee, and Rod Marsh not too long ago. Morale was low, and a tearful Kim Hughes resigned after the Test and Allan Border took over. In the second, Richard Hadlee got 15 on his own against Border’s men, still undergoing a phase of transition.

It has been nearly four decades since then. Once the transition had been completed, Australia went on to become the most dominant side in the world. There has been the occasional slump, but nothing sustained. The current Australian side, defending champions of the World Test Championship and favourites for the final berth in the current edition, are significantly superior to the abovementioned ones in the mid-1980s.

It is, thus, not illogical to portray Rohit’s decision as wrong. History does not back him, and neither does public memory. Nasser Hussain’s decision to field at the Gabba in 2002/03 famously backfired and attained cult status to the extent that the clip made it to Sky Sports’s “we didn’t start the fire” promo ahead for the 2015 Ashes.

Half a century before Hussain, there was Len Hutton, of “never before had an England captain taken such a gamble in Australia and certainly never before in a Test match had a side replied with a total of 601 after being sent in to bat” (Wisden Almanack) fame.

So why did India field first?

“It’s overcast,” explained Rohit at the toss. “A little bit of grass and it looks a little soft as well and try and see what we can do with the ball upfront.”

Rohit’s point – seam-friendly conditions early in the match – is obviously the most common reason for captains opting to field after winning the toss, but there was probably more to the decision than that.

At Perth, Jasprit Bumrah had demonstrated what he could do in conditions that favoured him, knocking out the Australian top order twice. In the first innings at Adelaide, Bumrah had four more and so had Mohammed Siraj. After two Tests, Bumrah’s series aggregate stands at 12 wickets at 11.25; Siraj’s, nine at 19.77.

The problem began after that. Harshit Rana had four wickets from the two Tests, and made way for Akash Deep at Brisbane. Nitish Kumar Reddy, the fourth seamer, bowled only 14 overs. Neither Washington Sundar nor R Ashwin impressed, and India filled that slot with Ravindra Jadeja at the Gabba.

The Indian attack, thus, has been largely dependent on Bumrah and, to a lesser extent, Siraj, who had celebrated his elevation to bowling spearhead status with a maiden five-wicket haul at the same venue four seasons ago.

India have managed Bumrah’s workload carefully since his return from injury in late 2023, not hesitating to rest him even for a live Test match against England earlier this year.

Did rain play a part in the decision? Bumrah is expected to bowl short spells. The morning breaks enabled him to do that. He had a three-over burst on either side of the first rain break. There was no wicket, but had there been cricket later in the day, India would have had him fresh despite sending down six overs.

This is not the first time rain enabled Bumrah to remain fresh in a Test match. At Edgbaston in 2022, India came off the ground thrice across 15.1 overs. Bumrah took a wicket in each of these bursts of play. While Jonny Bairstow reduced all that to insignificance, it showed how rain can keep a strike bowler fresh for an extended spell.

There may be another reason for India to field first here. Rain is predicted on all five days at Brisbane, which will significantly reduce the playing hours. There may still be a result, but if the match is drastically shortened, the side batting first will often close either of their innings too early or leave the declarations too late.

The side batting second – the “response” side, in other words – will be able to plan accordingly. If needed, they can declare their first innings without a big lead (or any lead), or beat the clock to chase a steep target. The shorter the Test, the higher the probability of any of these.

India might have challenged history with their decision, but not logic.

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