We have been working on the permutations for the 2023-25 World Test Championship and we still do not have an answer. Australia may make it to the final or they may not, just like India, who are slightly behind them. There is an outside chance of even both making it, but for that they need to rely a lot on Pakistan.

Yes, it is complicated. It is a testimony to this current Indian team that even a 3-0 decimation against New Zealand (and eight points lost at Port of Spain in 2023) have only dented their cause significantly, but not derailed them. In this cycle, they have drawn in South Africa and have held Australia at 1-1 after three Tests. Before that, they had made it to the final of the 2019-21 and 2021-23 editions.

Since the start of 2015 – in other words, across a week less than a decade – India have won 59 Tests and lost 26. Their win-loss ratio of 2.269 is some distance ahead of the 1.869 of Australia, the next-best team on the list. India are the only side to have won more away Tests (23) than they have lost (17) over this period.

India have won two series in Australia during this stretch, drawn series in England and South Africa, and have been the best side in Asia by some distance. At home, they won 18 consecutive series in a row. Of course, they did not lose a series at home in the 1990s either, but they did not win a single Test outside Asia from 33 attempts either.

Never before in their history have India had a 10-year stretch like this. However, that World Test Championship title remains elusive despite their two appearances in the final.

The debates over the WTC as the ultimate Test competition will continue. Every team does not play every opposition here, and the series are of unequal length. The relevance of a one-off final to determine the best side in a two-year competition has also been questioned. However, as long as it is there, the WTC remains a frontier unconquered by this great Indian side – and that is something they will want to change.

They will stand with an equal chance of winning if they make it to the final, but qualification does not seem easy at this point. A lot will hinge on Melbourne and Sydney.

Australia’s case is different.

Up above from Down Under

Australia are comfortably the greatest side in the format's history if one applies the same criterion that make India the most formidable side over the past decade. They are the only team to have won more away Tests (148) than lost (127), and their overall win-loss ratio (1.781) is well clear of second-placed England’s 1.219.

It is not a coincidence that they have produced some of the greatest sides in history. The astonishing success of Warwick Armstrong’s team of the early 1920s can be attributed to a war-ravaged England in an era when South Africa, the only other side, were even weaker. The success of the next generation makes a more remarkable story: Australia did not lose a single series between 1932-33 and 1953, an absurd phase even if one omits the eight-year phase where they did not play due to the Second World War.

England needed arguably their greatest side in history to end that run, but Australia went unbeaten again between 1956-57 and 1964-65. The West Indies then beat them, then South Africa (Test cricket was no longer an Ashes-and-support cast affair), then England again, but Australia rose again to go undefeated between 1972-73 and 1977.

The West Indian giants ruled the sport between the late 1970s and mid-1990s, a phase that engulfed a phase of transition for Australia. But Australia reclaimed their throne in 1994-95 and continued with the ascent. Their legendary Australian side of the 2000s had two streaks of 16 consecutive Test match wins that remain unmatched in history.

The Indian problem

Barring the West Indies under Clive Lloyd and Viv Richards, no side has managed to keep Australia at bay over a sustained period – until the current Indian side. Test cricket has had its share of all-time great sides: what makes the current era unusual is that there are two of them at the same time. Since all sports become more competitive over time, this duopoly was perhaps inevitable – but that discussion is best left for another day.

India and Australia usually beat every other side. However, in bilateral series between them, India have been a clear winner of late. Since that sandpaper-tainted year of 2018, Australia have not lost a Test series to any side, home or away – with the exception of India. Over the past decade, India have played four series against Australia – two in each nation – and won every single time.

Of course, several members of the current Australian side know what it is to beat India. Steve Smith. Mitchell Starc. Nathan Lyon. Even Josh Hazlewood. There was also the 2023 World Test Championship final, a match – albeit a one-off – with an official context.

Yet, there are counterpoints. About the traditional glory assigned to a Test match rubber. The sample size of one final at a neutral venue as a parameter. The ignominy of losing four consecutive series – including two at home – against the same opposition.

A win here will help silence some critics.

Since 1969-70, Australia’s only win in India has been in 2004-05. They will not return there before 2026-27. It is likely that some members of their great generation will never get to play in India again, more so because there is an Ashes in between – and some of their 21st-century greats have generally chosen the Ashes to retire after.

But they do have a chance to beat India, even if it is at home. They want to be remembered as the Australian side that ended the Indian streak, not the one that lost to them five times in a row. They would not want to be held accountable by history.

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