How the WTC Could Impact Australia And India’s Approaches In Brisbane

Rain restricted the first day’s play at the Gabba to 80 balls. If it rains more, India and Australia may both be bolder than usual to avoid a draw.

Only 13.2 overs of cricket was possible on day one of the Brisbane Test between Australia and India. The openers, Usman Khawaja and Nathan McSweeney, pushed the score to 28-0 against Jasprit Bumrah, Mohammed Siraj, and Akash Deep.

There has been only one draw in 2024 so far, the fewest for any year with a 20-Test cut-off. While the bowler-friendly conditions and bowling depths have played a role in that, there is little one can do if rain decides to play spoilsport.

At 2,149 balls (358.1 overs), the recent South Africa-Sri Lanka Test at Gqeberha is the longest of the year. This means that no Test match has lasted 360 overs (the equivalent of four full days) in 2024. It is, thus, too early in the match to contemplate a draw. However, another day’s rain may change all that.

In another era, a draw would have been just another outcome. The teams would have moved on to the fourth Test with their eyes on the rubber. Anecdotes featuring cricketers confined to dressing-rooms would have surfaced over the years to come.

The WTC has put an end to that mindset. In the 2025-27 cycle, India and Australia are both contenders for a spot (one spot, more specifically, for South Africa are almost there) in the final. A draw would grant four points to each side, an outcome neither side would settle for. Before delving into the possible consequences of a draw, here is where the teams stand at this point.

Test matches left for India and Australia

India: Three Tests in Australia (including the ongoing one)
Australia: The same, followed by two Tests in Sri Lanka

What if Brisbane is a draw?

Australia’s PCT will immediately drop to 58.89 and India’s to 55.88. If they lose, on the other hand, Australia will drop to 56.67 and India to 53.92 – a demonstration of how the lack of relevance of draws in the WTC era.

In other words, they will move further away from South Africa, who are one win away from reaching 61.11 and securing a final berth. If that happens, India and Australia will fight for one spot.

Assuming Brisbane is a draw and there is no tie, wins at Melbourne and Sydney will take India to 60.53. They will then qualify. However, if they win one and draw the other, they will finish on a dicey 57.02. A 2-0 win will help Australia reach 58.77 and overcome that.

If Australia and India win a Test each in this series, India will finish on 55.26. Even a 1-1 outcome in Sri Lanka will help Australia overtake them (they will reach 57.02). However, if India fail to win another Test, they will not reach more than 53.51. In that case, they are certain to finish below at least one of Australia and Sri Lanka. One must remember that Sri Lanka are in this too, despite hanging on to it by the thinnest of threads.

It is, thus, important for both Australia and India to push for a result at Brisbane.

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