India's defeat in the day-night Adelaide Test match has seen them drop from first to third in the World Test Championship standings.
Following their win in the first match of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy, India had a PCT of 61.11, and sat above both South Africa and Australia in the standings. Their PCT has now dropped to 57.29 and they have fallen back behind both those teams. Along with India, there are now only three other teams in the race for the final after New Zealand were ruled out after their loss to England at the Basin Reserve today (December 8). Those teams are Australia, South Africa and Sri Lanka.
India have only the three matches left in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy in the WTC cycle and the maximum PCT they can reach is 64.04. If they do that, they will be certain to qualify for the final. South Africa are on course to win the second Test match of their series against Sri Lanka. Assuming they do that, only if they win both of their Tests against Pakistan later this month will they go ahead of India to take top spot in the standings. Even if that happens, Australia would be unable to overtake either side even if they win both of their matches against Sri Lanka. Thus, India and South Africa would be WTC finalists.
If India win two of the remaining Border-Gavaskar Tests, losing the third, their final PCT will be 58.77. If South Africa beat Sri Lanka in the ongoing second Test, that will be enough to put Australia in second place and South Africa to the top of the standings. They would stay there even if they lost one Test against Pakistan, only dropping out of the top two if they lost both of those Tests. If South Africa stay above India in the standings in this scenario, Australia would need to win both of their Test matches against Sri Lanka to displace them from the top three. In short, if India win two of the Tests they have left against Australia, they either need South Africa to lose both Tests against Pakistan to be certain of a top two finish or Sri Lanka to beat Australia in at least one Test.
Australia outclassed India in Adelaide to level the scores in the Border-Gavaskar trophy.
— Wisden India (@WisdenIndia) December 8, 2024
Scorecard ➡️https://t.co/juNshKddUE pic.twitter.com/BWLSq4BIak
If India only win one of their remaining Tests, their path to the final gets narrower still. This would see them finish the cycle with a PCT of 53.51. In order to displace South Africa they would need Pakistan to beat them in both Tests. However, even if Pakistan did win both Tests, if Sri Lanka then beat Australia in both Tests, they would displace India in the top two. India would need Australia to win at least one Test against Sri Lanka to stay in the top two in that scenario.
If India lose all three of their remaining Border-Gavaskar Trophy Tests, their only route to the final would be if Sri Lanka beat South Africa in their ongoing Test, Pakistan beat South Africa 2-0 and Australia beat Sri Lanka 2-0.
Australia's chances of making the final have also been bolstered by their win. The maximum PCT they can now reach is 71.05 if they win all five of their remaining Tests. If they do that, no one will be able to displace them at the top. Beating India 3-2 would all but guarantee Australia a place in the final, regardless of the result of their series against Sri Lanka.
Follow Wisden for all cricket updates, including live scores, match stats, quizzes and more. Stay up to date with the latest cricket news, player updates, team standings, match highlights, video analysis and live match odds.
