The first day of the Brisbane Test between India and Australia has been called off due to incessant rain. Here’s how a draw could affect either team’s chances of qualifying for the WTC finals.
The race for the World Test Championship final is heading towards an exciting finish, with South Africa cementing their place at the top of the table following the series win over Sri Lanka. India and Australia are the biggest contenders to make the final as well, but rain over the next few days and adraw in the Brisbane Test could throw mean new permutations as teams scramble to make it to Lord’s next year.
The weather prediction for the next few days in Brisbane does not look highly promising: There is rain expected for each of the next four days, with heavy thunderstorms scheduled for days four and five. The series is currently level 1-1 after Australia’s comeback win at Adelaide, with two more Tests scheduled, in Melbourne and Sydney.
Also Read: The WTC 2023-25 points table if away wins fetched bonus points
How a draw will affect the WTC chances of either side
India are currently third on the points table with a PCT of 57.29, while Australia are second, with a PCT of 60.71. South Africa, with six wins and three defeats along with a draw, are top with a PCT of 63.33.
India will not play any more matches after the Australia series in the ongoing cycle of the World Test Championship. They will, thus, end their campaign with 19 Tests. Australia, on the other hand, will take on Sri Lanka in January for two Tests.
India have currently won nine games from 16. A draw in Brisbane will heavily hamper their chances of making it into the WTC final. They will then need to win both their remaining games in the series to enter the top two and ensure a place for themselves in the summit clash. They will go up to a PCT of 60.53. Even if Australia then whitewash Sri Lanka, India would have done enough.
South Africa have hammered Sri Lanka in Gqeberha to climb to the top of the WTC points table.
— Wisden (@WisdenCricket) December 9, 2024
Check the standings here ➡️ https://t.co/tkrKA9IJ0q pic.twitter.com/e838yXWKwa
However, anything less will all but rule India out. If India win one more Test and Australia wins another in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy, India’s PCT will drop down to 55.26. In this case, if Australia win even one Test in Sri Lanka, India will be unable to make it into the top two.
India can be helped if South Africa lose points by dropping a game in their home series against Pakistan. However, the Proteas losing 0-2 to Shan Masood’s side looks unrealistic. Even if South Africa win a game and lose the other, they will enter the final.
Read more: Explained: Why India have picked Jadeja over Ashwin at the Gabba
If India ends up winning the Australia series 2-1, with two draws, India will hope that Australia do not win more than one Test against Sri Lanka.
Australia, on the other hand, will want to win at least two more games from the remaining four that will be left following the hypothetical situation of the Brisbane Test ending in a draw. Two draws and two wins will also be enough for them.
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