Four teams are in contention to make the World Test Championship finals, with Australia, India and South Africa strongly in the mix and Sri Lanka having an outside chance.
The WTC final will be held in Lord’s next year, and defending champions Australia could make their second final appearance in a row. Currently, on top of the table, South Africa will be looking to strengthen their chances during the two-match Test series against Pakistan. At the same time, India’s hopes rely on winning the last two matches in Australia, to be played at the MCG and the SCG.
India have not lost a single Test at either venue since January 2012. With the wickets flatter than it is at any other ground in Australia, the visitors will be hopeful for their third straight series win Down Under. Two wins out of two will also assure them a place in the WTC final, but even a draw will leave them wanting their neighbours Pakistan to do them a favour.
Current 2023-25 WTC table
| Rank | Team | Matches | Won | Lost | Drawn | Points deducted | Points | PCT |
| 1 | South Africa | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 76 | 63.33 |
| 2 | Australia | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | -10 | 106 | 58.89 |
| 3 | India | 17 | 9 | 6 | 2 | -2 | 114 | 55.88 |
| 4 | New Zealand | 14 | 7 | 7 | 0 | -3 | 81 | 48.21 |
| 5 | Sri Lanka | 11 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 60 | 45.45 |
| 6 | England | 22 | 11 | 10 | 1 | -22 | 114 | 43.18 |
| 7 | Pakistan | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | -8 | 40 | 33.33 |
| 8 | Bangladesh | 12 | 4 | 8 | 0 | -3 | 45 | 31.25 |
| 9 | West Indies | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 32 | 24.24 |
We have considered the schedule of the teams still in contention. India and Australia will play two more Tests in the series, following which Australia will travel to Sri Lanka to play two games. Pakistan and South Africa will also be engaged in a two-Test series, starting from Boxing Day. India have no more fixtures in the current WTC cycle.
How can India push themselves up from their current no.3 spot into the top two?
They will need to not lose a game in the series against Australia. Two wins and they will make the final even if South Africa and Australia whitewash their respective opponents. However, considering the current form of India’s middle order and the lack of depth in the bowling, a 3-1 series win sounds almost unreal.
Also Read: The 2023-25 World Test Championship has been the best yet, and is headed for a grandstand finish
Let us consider the scenario if India win one game in the series and draw the other. They will end the WTC cycle with a PCT of 57.02 and it will not be enough on its own to make the final. However, they can be helped if Pakistan win at least one Test against the Proteas. If Pakistan win one and South Africa win another, India will then be awaiting the series result between Sri Lanka and Australia. Two wins for Australia against the Lankans along with all the scenarios above will see India miss out.
To avoid the result of the Sri Lanka-Australia series from affecting their chances, they will want Pakistan to win at least 1-0 against South Africa. Sri Lanka are the only Asian team in the history of Test cricket to win a Test series in the Rainbow Nation, and Pakistan will need to play out of their skins to make the result possible.
If India win one game in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy and Australia win another, Pakistan will need to win their series against South Africa 2-0. Even if Australia whitewash Sri Lanka in that case, India will edge ahead of South Africa to make the final.
The best case for India, however, would be to aim and secure a spot in the final themselves, rather than relying on various permutations, scenarios, and possibilities.
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