On Sunday (January 5), Australia sealed a spot in the World Test Championship final, defeating India by six wickets in Sydney. However, there is one way they can still miss out on the summit clash.
In the final match of the five-Test series, Australia secured a 3-1 series victory after wins in Adelaide and Melbourne before the Sydney triumph. It was the first time since 2014-15 that they beat India in a Test series, and the win helped them secure a spot in the World Test Championship final.
They are now set to meet South Africa at Lord's in June. The Proteas had confirmed their own place with an exciting two-wicket win over Pakistan at Centurion in the Boxing Day Test.
However, there remains the slimmest chance that Australia could yet be knocked out of their final berth.
How could Australia miss out on the World Test Championship final?
As things stand, Australia have a points percentage of 63.73. No team remaining in the competition – Pakistan, West Indies or Sri Lanka – can catch up to this. Sri Lanka are the team who can get closest, but even if they beat Australia 2-0, their points percentage will be 53.85, and Australia's 57.02.
| Team | Played | Won | Draw | Lost | Points deducted | Points | PCT |
| South Africa | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 88 | 66.67 |
| Australia | 17 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 130 | 63.73 |
| India | 19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 114 | 50.00 |
| New Zealand | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 81 | 48.21 |
| Sri Lanka | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 60 | 45.45 |
| England | 22 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 114 | 43.18 |
| Bangladesh | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 45 | 31.25 |
| Pakistan | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 40 | 30.30 |
| West Indies | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 32 | 24.24 |
However, if Australia receive a points penalty for maintaining a slow over rate, this could change. A total penalty of eight points across the two remaining matches, combined with a 2-0 series win for Sri Lanka, would send the Lankans through at Australia's expense.
Eight is a significant deduction, but there is precedent. Australia were penalised 10 points after the fourth Test of the 2023 Ashes, a series in which England copped 19 penalty points in total. Pakistan were also docked six points against Bangladesh earlier this year.
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Australia cannot be penalised for the Sydney Test, as they bowled India out in under 80 overs in each innings. But they will have to keep this in mind when travelling to Sri Lanka. Given the likelihood of bowling significantly more overs of spin than in most other countries, Australia should end up on the right side of this.
However, it is also possible that they may end up in a situation where they are made to field for long hours, and exhaustion takes its toll on the pace of the game - in their last Test in Sri Lanka, a Dinesh Chandimal double century kept Australia in the field for 181 overs. It's still unlikely, but never say never.
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