India had been chasing the MCG Test from the get go. After Australia amassed 474 in the first innings and pegged India back to 221-7, Nitish Kumar Reddy and Washington Sundar brought them back into the game, keeping the deficit down to 105.

Then when Australia threatened to run away with the game in the second innings with Marnus Labuschagne and Steve Smith looking in control at 80-2, it was Mohammed Siraj and Jasprit Bumrah who gave India hope, reducing Australia to 91-6. The Australian lower order then wagged, as the next three wickets cost India 82 runs.

When the ninth wicket fell at the score of 173 with the lead at 278, there was an hour-and-a-half to go till stumps. India would have fancied their chances of a victory. But the 55-run, 17.5-over last-wicket stand has taken the lead to 333, making an Indian victory look increasingly improbable.

However, it could also have reduced Australia's chances of victory. Here's how.

Lesser number of overs to bowl out India

The one obvious side-effect of the last-wicket partnership is that it has reduced the time Australia will get to bowl at India. Ninety-six overs are scheduled to be bowled on day five, not accounting for the change of innings. While that's still a good enough period to take ten Indian wickets, Australia could easily have had a spell of around 15 overs on the fourth evening and taken out a wicket or two off the struggling Indian top order.

Australia have bowled out oppositions in the fourth innings at the MCG within 96 overs only 27 times out of 52. On the other hand, teams have scored more than 300 in the fourth innings of a Melbourne Test only eight times out of 89 attempts, and only six times against Australia. There has only ever been one successful 300-plus run-case at the MCG - it came 96 years back. The highest successful run-chase at the MCG in the 21st century is 231, by Australia against England in 2013. The highest in the 21st century against Australia has been 183, by South Africa in 2008.

Even if the last wicket added zero instead off 55, or even if Cummins declared the innings shut at the fall of the ninth wicket, Australia would have set India a target of 279 - only five times has a team successfully chased more than that at the MCG. Australia could have dangled the carrot.

Out of reach target might change India's approach

Even if Australia don't bat again on the fifth morning, or even if they don't add any more runs, India will be set a target of 334. While that's still gettable and will need them to score at roughly 3.5 runs per over, it would be India's third-highest successful run-chase in Test history and the highest ever at the MCG by any team, if they do achieve it.

India have the batting depth to go for the target if they wish to, but there's a good chance that they'd first want to get to a position of safety, much like they approached the Gabba run-chase four years back. On the other hand, a slightly lower target, around the 280-300 mark would perhaps have tempted them to bat for the win from the outset, potentially leading to more wicket-taking opportunities for Australia.

A defensive or sedate approach from the top order where they look to blunt Australia's attack for two sessions could also lead to the bowlers tiring for the final session (they have already bowled 119.3 overs in the first innings) when India might decide to go for the target if they have enough wickets in hand.

Lesser number of fresh spells for fast bowlers

A less obvious factor would be that the three Australian quicks could have bowled one sharp spell each on the fourth evening had Australia declared or been bowled out, and could have come back to start afresh on the fifth morning.

Starting the innings directly on the fifth day takes away one fresh spell for each of the three fast bowlers from the innings, which, given their workload in the first innings (Cummins 29 overs, Starc 25 overs, Boland 27 overs), could become a factor.

By no means does a bigger target increase India's chances of victory. In fact, it would only add to the scoreboard pressure. But it has definitely increased the chances of a draw. A drawn Test would mean India will head into the fifth Test with a shot at winning a third consecutive BGT in Australia, and will also keep their WTC final hopes well and truly alive.

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