From one vantage point, England were in all three games, only a handful of key moments away from a stirring result against the world champions. From another, as the Aussies might put it, “6-0, f*** off”.

In the third ODI, Australia were, at one point, 59-4, and England 200-4. In the second, England really should have chased 181. In the first, they were 92-2 and, had Sophie Ecclestone taken a simple catch, would have had Australia seven down still needing 21 runs. In the first two defeats, England’s gameplan came under question. Did they need to “be braver”, or could settling for a par total in the first ODI and knocking it around in the second have been the way to go?

Australia have also not quite been at their best. Phoebe Litchfield has a high score of 60 in the past 12 months. Ellyse Perry is not quite the uber-consistent force she once was. Similar is true of Alyssa Healy, who is also returning from injury. Ash Gardner is an exceptional all-round cricketer, but is also a No.6 averaging under 30. Two years on, Meg Lanning’s shadow still looms large, and they may never fully replace her. Had England been at their best, with Australia a little off it, the series scoreline could have been very different. The T20I leg may yet see the distance between the sides narrow.

The bigger question, however, is why England need to be flawless even when Australia are flawed. Why is the margin for error so small, even when the opposition are making errors themselves? The answer, uncomfortable as it is, is that England are still some way off their Ashes rivals, and that the gap might be as big as ever. While England have had moments and chances, there has always remained the lingering sense of a team being kept at arm’s length.

In a stiff chase of 309, England collapsed from 200-4 to 222 all out, to complete a 3-0 loss in the ODI leg of the Ashes.

Ashleigh Gardner (102) and Alana King (5-46) were the standout performers for Australia.

Scorecard ➡ https://t.co/3478wSoRBT pic.twitter.com/VcyYxe3zDL

— Wisden (@WisdenCricket) January 17, 2025

Australia’s array of all-rounders affords them such great batting depth, the kind that ensures recoveries of today’s type will always be possible, and that there will always be another bowler to whom to turn in search of a breakthrough. In this game, it was Georgia Wareham, picked for her first game of the series for a pitch predicted to turn, and instead making use of an unexpectedly true surface to blast 38 off 12 and take Australia past 300, before dismissing England’s two half-centurions with flight and guile rather than sharp spin. England can only dream of having a player like that in reserve, which is not to mention Georgia Voll, who averaged over 80 with a maiden century in her debut ODI series against India, before making way for the fit-again Healy.

The truth is that England haven’t won an Ashes game down under since November 2017 and that while 2023 was extraordinary, it was also still only a drawn series despite one of their greatest ever, Nat Sciver-Brunt, having her career peak during it. England are increasingly reliant on Sciver-Brunt and their other older batters to keep them competitive. Those in the side aged under 30, which includes two of the top seven, have contributed 103 runs between them this series. Sciver-Brunt has 115 by herself, and for her, an average of 38 represents a sub-par return.

It’s hard, as the possibility of a true Ashes shellacking hardens, to see how that changes in the short term. While a lack of role clarity that has hampered Alice Capsey in particular, England have, in general, invested plenty into her, Maia Bouchier, and Sophia Dunkley, with none, as yet, showing they are close to performing consistently against the world’s best. Below the England set-up, the leading candidates to replace them are largely tried and discarded players, also in their 30s. Six of the top eight run-scorers in the 2024 Rachael Heyhoe Flint Trophy are past their 30th birthday. There is plenty hoped of Grace Scrivens and Seren Smale, the other two in the top eight, but each scored at a strike rate in the low 70s. It will take time for them to develop the dynamism required for international cricket.

Time is the one thing England do not possess. An expanded professional pathway, a reengaged youth base, a place in the national cricketing consciousness are all necessary things, but they are long-term projects that will reap long-term results. In the short term, there are four more Ashes games - one defeat will ensure England’s trophyless streak stretches past a decade - and then a fifty-over World Cup in the summer. It doesn’t feel like it now, but if Australia have an off-day, and England are at their very best, they do still have a chance. But for the time being, England need that kind of miracle in order to compete.

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