Mohammed Shami sits tenth in the list of Indian ODI wicket-takers, completing his second five-for in the format in Mohali against Australia. Among the 15 with 150 or more wickets, Shami has the best bowling average (25.42) and the best bowling strike rate (27.3). In fact, none of the other 14 have a strike rate of less than 30.

It would be safe to say that Shami is one of India’s all-time greats in the format. In fact, he is not far off from being one of the very best in world cricket. Among fast bowlers with more than 150 wickets, only Mitchell Starc has taken wickets at a quicker rate than Shami in ODIs.

With a record like that, you’d expect him to get into any ODI XI at the World Cup, particularly India’s, a country that has historically not been known for its world-class fast bowlers, and particularly after performances like the one he gave in Mohali, registering his best figures in the format (5-51).

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Yet, such have India’s fast-bowling riches been in the last few years, that they might start the World Cup without him, and it wouldn’t be the wrong call if they did.

Jasprit Bumrah is finally back to full fitness. When fit and available, he walks into any side in any format in world cricket. The other fast bowler that India have in their World Cup squad happens to be ranked No.1 in ICC’s ODI rankings for bowlers – Mohammed Siraj.

Siraj has been in red-hot form in ODIs in the last two years. Twenty-seven innings have brought him 53 wickets at 17.7 runs apiece. Only four of those 27 innings have turned out to be wicketless.

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Seniority and experience have always been valued highly in Indian cricket. Newcomers have done well, but displacing established seniors from their spots in the XI has never been easy, more so if the seniors themselves aren’t doing too badly.

Siraj’s ODI career, however, has not just hit a purple patch, it has been purple all the way through. Not capitalizing on it at the World Cup would be a grave mistake, even if it means leaving Shami out of the XI. The Indian management seems to have identified that, as was evident in their selection in the Asia Cup where Siraj played ahead of Shami.

In an ideal world, India would play all three of Shami, Bumrah, and Siraj in the XI. But if their fast bowling riches have grown in the last few years, the batting skills of their bowlers and the bowling skills of their batters have shrunk.

None of Shami, Bumrah, or Siraj are capable enough batters to hold their own at No.8 in ODIs, nor is Kuldeep Yadav, India’s only frontline spinner in the squad who’s also a lock in the XI. That is where Shardul Thakur and Axar Patel come in.

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Although Thakur has been doing well enough with the ball to warrant a place in the side for his bowling alone, it is his batting pedigree at No.8 that makes him hard to ignore. His batting numbers in ODIs aren’t exceptional – average of 17.3 and strike rate of 105.11 with just one fifty-plus score – but he has done better with the bat in Tests, averaging 20.3 and scoring four fifties.

However, the psychological cushion that the rest of the batting order gets knowing that the batting does not finish at No.7 is immense and allows them to be less conservative in their approach.

On spin-friendly surfaces, Axar can replace Thakur, effectively keeping the balance of the XI the same. Hardik Pandya’s much-evolved bowling abilities mean that India will be more than happy to use him as the third seamer on such occasions.

In the previous ODI World Cup, Shami did not start for India, Bhuvneshwar Kumar did. It was only after the latter was injured midway through the tournament that Shami found a way back in. He played four games, took 14 wickets at an average of 13.8 including a hat-trick, and yet, was dropped again once Bhuvneshwar returned.

At this stage, it shouldn’t be a surprise if he goes through a similar campaign in the 2023 World Cup as well, only getting a game in case of an injury to Bumrah or Siraj, or if either of them gets rested towards the latter stages of the tournament.