The ICC announced their annual rankings update this week, meaning several sides have moved around in the standings. India took the top spot off Australia for the first time in 15 months. England remained at third place, but as a result of the update, they are now closer to the second-ranked side. Their rating used to be 13 behind India before the update; they are now two behind Australia.

The reason for this change is that all Test series played before May 2020 are no longer factored into the ratings. Australia’s 2-0 and 3-0 wins over Pakistan and New Zealand respectively in 2019/20 have been removed from their total, while India’s 2-0 defeat in New Zealand in the same season also no longer counts.

In addition, the weightage of ratings collected from all Test series played between May 2020 and May 2022 has been halved in value. The points collected from Test series’ after this time have a 100 percent weightage.

For England, neither the 2-2 draw in the 2019 Ashes nor the 2018/19 series defeat in New Zealand counts an. Their 2020/21 3-1 loss to India has had its weightage halved, as have their Test match defeats to New Zealand and India in the 2021 home summer, as well as their 2021/22 4-0 Ashes series loss and subsequent series defeat in the West Indies.

At the same time, the points they have accumulated from the 10 Test match wins they have recorded under Brendon McCullum and Ben Stokes since May last year all carry 100% weight.

All of this means that England have a chance of ascending to the top of the rankings by the end of the upcoming Ashes series. However, there are several parameters which make that challenge a tall order.

First, Australia have to beat India in the World Test Championship final. If India win, not even a 5-0 Ashes victory will propel England to the top of the standings. However, an Australian win will reduce India’s lead at the top of the standings to a single point over Australia, on 119 and 118 respectively, with England behind on 114.

England then have to win at least three Ashes Test matches. That would put them level with India on 119. If England win exactly three, they will need draws in the other two to ensure they stay at the top. If Australia win one of the matches, England will need to win a fourth to reach 119 and draw level with India.

Only if England win the Ashes 5-0 will they claim the No.1 ranking in their own right. That unlikely scenario would give England 121 and a three-point lead at the top of the table.

Even if England do manage a historic feat of whitewashing Australia at home, India are due to play the West Indies in a two-Test match series at the end of August. Two wins there could well end England’s reign at the top after less than a month.