The last time Australia went into a Test without a frontline spin option was against India at the WACA in 2011/12, when an all-seam attack combined to bowl India out for under 200 in each innings. Now, Australia have gone with a pure pace attack again, with Todd Murphy left out after a peripheral showing at Headingley, in which he bowled just 9.3 overs in the game.

More than that, Australia’s XI features only three specialist fast bowlers, with all-rounders Mitchell Marsh and Cam Green supplementing the attack. It’s a team balance that sees Australia, who only need a draw to retain the Ashes, bat extremely deep, with Green at No.7 and wicketkeeper Alex Carey at No.8.

With rain forecast to interrupt much of the Test, England will need an extremely strong showing if they are to keep their dreams of regaining the Ashes alive.

What do over-rates have to do with this?

Over-rates have been poor throughout the 2023 men’s Ashes series. The supposed minimum of 90 overs in six hours is yet to be reached throughout the series, and even the extra half-hour at times not enough to reach a full quota.

England and Australia were each fined 40 percent of their match fees and docked two World Test Championship points for being two overs below the minimum over rate of 15 overs per hour in the first Test, but have avoided any sanctions since.

How have the rules changed?

At a recent ICC Annual General Meeting, one of the conclusions arrived at was a lessening of the sanctions surrounding bad over-rates, and tweaks to make it easier to avoid such sanctions in the first place. Previously, teams would be docked 20 per cent of their match fees for every over below the minimum rate they were. That has been reduced to five per cent, and the maximum possible penalty capped at 50 per cent.

A loophole which sees bowling innings with a poor over rate not taken into account if a team is bowled out quickly has been expanded, with the cut-off rising from 60 overs to 80 overs. Five of the 12 team innings in the current men’s Ashes have been between 60 and 80 overs long, as were both innings Australia bowled in the World Test Championship final.

“The ICC World Test Championship has injected renewed energy into Test cricket giving it compelling context,” said ICC Men’s Cricket Committee chair Sourav Ganguly. “In the last edition we only had 12 draws in 69 matches, and we want to ensure that trend continues whilst we’re giving fans the best value for money and keeping over-rates up.

“The Men’s Cricket Committee felt strongly that over-rate penalties in the form of WTC points deductions should remain but recommended that players should not have 100 per cent of their match fee at risk. We believe this provides a balance between maintaining over-rates and ensuring we are not deterring players from playing Test cricket.”

The move came as a surprise, going against a growing consensus that bad over-rates pose a danger to fan enjoyment of Test cricket, with slow play and timewasting robbing supporters of value for money.

What has Australia’s influence on this change been?

Speaking before the Old Trafford Test, Australia opener Usman Khawaja openly explained how he had used his relationship with ICC general manager Wasim Khan to push for a change to the over-rate rules.

“I was pretty frustrated with what was happening,” Khawaja said. “I just thought someone has to find a way to speak to the ICC about it. We had played three games and they’d been three really good games with results, [providing] entertainment and we were getting fined 80 per cent of our match fee. It’s a lot of money.

“[It’s] just really frustrating as a player, you are giving it your all out there, providing entertainment, then you are getting stung for it.”

“Wasim was really good. We talked, he took the feedback. To his credit, it wasn’t just listening and no action. Actions happened within one or two weeks. We are trying to go as fast as we can. It’s the conditions that make it hard for us. If you are in India, we are never behind the over-rate [with] two spinners going at it.

“We were getting results, that’s what was frustrating. [I] Think England were frustrated with it, too. I appreciate the ICC actually listening to players. It’s the first time I have had that with the ICC. Think it’s a really good step forward.”

What does this mean for Australia’s Old Trafford XI?

Nathan Lyon being ruled out of the men’s Ashes from the third Test onwards has posed a problem for Australia. The off-spinner ranks among the greatest in the game’s history, and the tourists do not possess a replacement of his calibre.

While Murphy, who impressed on Test debut in India, was included for Headingley, Australia captain Pat Cummins did not appear to trust him fully, bowling him for just 7.3 overs in the first innings, and only two in a tense chase.

More than that, Cummins also had issues with other members of Australia’s attack. Scott Boland, also dropped for Old Trafford, has been ineffective this series, and Marsh was also little used with the ball. That meant that Cummins and Mitchell Starc bowled a significant majority of Australia’s overs: 32 out of 52.3 overs in the first innings, and 31 out of 50 in the second.

Due to the short length of England’s innings, Australia avoided any sanction, but the pace of play was slow throughout, allowing Cummins and Starc rest even as the others in the attack bowled little.

At Old Trafford, with England resurgent, weather likely to play its part, a deep batting line-up could be the key to helping Australia to the draw they need. Now, they can keep Cummins, Starc and Josh Hazlewood fresh without needing to bowl Green and Marsh much, or search for some part-time spin overs, as long as England are bowled out within 80 overs. And if the game does get close, and the clouds draw in, could we even see some even slower play to allow the rain to put paid to England’s hopes?