England and Australia will finally take to the field this week for the most hotly anticipated Ashes series in over a decade. As both sides make their final preparations for the series – here’s a look at where it will be won and lost.
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Both sides are coming into the series at significant points in their stories. Australia have just won the World Test Championship, the crowning glory for a side that have won trophies across formats. They dominated India at The Kia Oval, and their consistency across the whole cycle has rightly earned them the title of the best team in the world. To win their first Ashes series on English soil in over 20 years would be the jewel in that crown which would seal their place among the great Australia sides.
England are at a different point in their development. They have been under the Ben Stokes and Brendon McCullum regime for over a year. They have proved they can win away from home in some of the toughest environments and have reinvigorated their fan’s enjoyment of Test cricket. Now it’s a test of stamina, of whether they can keep their momentum forward against their strongest opponents yet.
With the series too close to call before it starts, here’s a look at the key battle-ground areas where either side could gain the upper hand.
Last man standing
Both squads go into the series with significant injury concerns among their fast bowlers. Josh Hazlewood was ruled out of the WTC final to continue his recovery, while Mitchell Starc has only played three of Australia’s six Tests this year. Six Tests in little more than six weeks is a challenge for any seamer. While Australia have a depth of options should one of their three preferred horsemen go down (Scott Boland and Michael Nesser have both done enough to put their names in serious contention), getting worn down into their reserves early risks allowing England full control with the bat. Boland has been excellent for Australia at home since he burst onto the scene at the MCG in 2021, against England no-less, but he doesn’t quite boast the pace of the front-line three.
Similarly for England, both James Anderson and Ollie Robinson missed the Ireland Test to preserve their fitness, while Mark Wood will be, as ever, wrapped in weapons-grade cotton wool. Jack Leach’s stress fracture means England are already into their reserve spinners and, although Josh Tongue showed promise at Lord’s, giving him the responsibility of a front-line bowler against Australia’s attack is risky.
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Stokes has asked for bouncy, run-scoring decks for England to uphold their aggressive approach, and regardless of their bowlers, they will believe they can chase down anything. But, whoever can keep the majority of their front-line attack on the park throughout the series will have a significant advantage by the end.
Tail-end supremacy
Australia’s lower order is one of the best in the business. Since the beginning of 2020, they have the highest average runs per wicket (32.31) from wickets 8 to 10 of any Test side. They score them quickly too, at 3.38 runs per over for those wickets, the second quickest of any side. With a formidable top order threatening to score runs from every corner, it will be vital England do not allow Australia to add to that with tail-end runs.
England have been poor against the tail in recent history. Since 2020, they concede an average of 28.25 per batter against the lower order and concede over three runs per over. Whereas, Australia have been the best side in the world at blowing the bowlers away, undoubtedly thanks to their tall fast-bowling trio. In the same timeframe, they have conceded 23.18 runs per wicket to the tail, and gone at 2.88 an over.
Containment
Under Stokes, containment feels like a dirty word, but it would be naive to say England will not need to find a way to prioritise drying up runs during this series. The foundation of what they have achieved over the last year has been that they truly believe they can chase any total. Based on that timeframe alone, there’s no reason to suggest they couldn’t. But Australia have better bowlers, and better batters, than any side they have faced in that time. Not only can Steve Smith and Marnus Labuschagne grind any side they face into the dirt, but England will also be dealing with Travis Head. His century at The Kia Oval showed he’s a different prospect than he was in England four years ago.
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Australia also face the same problem. England’s batters are on a high, Harry Brook has had the Test match start to end all others, and Ben Duckett, Ollie Pope and co are a step behind. That’s before you get on to the likes of Joe Root, Jonny Bairstow and Stokes himself. As much as Australia’s lineup is world-beating, England have demonstrated over the last months that they can match them pound for pound and, when it comes to brute force, they can out-bludgeon them.
Opening question marks
Australia’s top-order is their strength, while England’s middle to lower is theirs. Nevertheless, they both have one significant question mark in their opening partnership. David Warner has never been at his best in England and has left Australia in a difficult position at the top over the last two years. Zak Crawley’s struggles are well documented, and a less-than-assured fifty against Ireland did little to distil concerns.
If one of them puts their form behind them in this series and the other struggles, it could be a powerful leverage point.
Close calls
As ever with Test cricket, the series will be won and lost in the little moments. The micro-sessions and individual partnerships will shape the contest and ultimately decide who comes out on top. England have been masters of this under Stokes. They have found ways to win sessions or claw the impetus of the match back into their favour. Never-say-die cricket is how all teams say they play, but no team has embodied it the way England have under Stokes.
By contrast, Australia have built their success on winning big. They dominate sides from start to finish and don’t take their foot off the pedal. But to win this series, they will have to find a way to regain the initiative and scrap for each small victory. If what the vast majority of sane predictions say comes to fruition, whoever wins the series will not do so by a big margin. Whoever manages to produce those magic moments this series is famed for when their team needs them most will come out on top.
