Sri Lanka’s win over Pakistan in the second Galle Test has pushed them back to third place in the World Test Championship (WTC) table, but an entry into the final won’t come easily for them.

After suffering a four-wicket loss in the first Test courtesy of a brilliant Pakistan chase led by Abdullah Shafique, Sri Lanka fought back with a resounding 246-run win to level the series 1-1, climbing to third on the WTC table, just behind South Africa and Australia.

Sri Lanka have now played five out of their six series in the current cycle, and have a PCT of 53.55 (percentage of points won per points contested). They won their series against West Indies, before losing to India, and then winning against Bangladesh. In their last two series, they’ve drawn with Australia and Pakistan.

Their remaining series of the current cycle comes against New Zealand, winners of the previous edition, who are currently languishing in the second-last spot with a PCT of 25.93. Sri Lanka are set to play two Tests in New Zealand in March next year.

A 2-0 series win will make their PCT 61.1, while a series drawn 1-1 will leave them at 52.78. A 1-0 win will put them at 55.56 PCT.

Historically, Sri Lanka stand at a distinct disadvantage against New Zealand – in 36 Tests, they’ve won only nine and lost 16. In seven Tests since 2015, they’ve won just once and lost five times, and last won a series against the Black Caps back in 2009. In New Zealand, Sri Lanka have won just one Test series – in 1995 – and have lost to the home side on their last three visits.

The track record alone can’t rule out a change of fortunes though; New Zealand, afflicted by a couple of high-profile retirements and out-of-form stars, have struggled in the current cycle, winning two games and losing six. And while they still have home advantage – the series still being eight months away – their recent run could mean that Sri Lanka will arrive feeling they have a chance.

It isn’t just about Sri Lanka and New Zealand though. Even if Sri Lanka win 2-0, they will be dependent on other results to make the final. South Africa and Australia are in comfortable positions, while, in the middle of the table, Sri Lanka have competition from India and Pakistan. South Africa currently have a PCT of 71.43, but are also set to battle England and Australia away from home, with a home series against West Indies to follow. Assuming they win the home series 2-0, winning two of their six Tests against England and Australia and drawing one of the others would see them finish on 62.22 PCT, ahead of Sri Lanka’s highest possible PCT. If India win five of their six remaining Tests – two in Bangladesh, four at home to Australia – they will also finish above Sri Lanka.

Pakistan, with five Tests at home against England and New Zealand coming up, are another team who could confirm a finish above Sri Lanka, needing four wins to do so. Even if Australia lose 4-0 in India, they could already have confirmed themselves as finishing above Sri Lanka if they clean-sweep their home summer.

So Sri Lanka do not have destiny in their own hands. But that doesn’t mean they are out of it altogether. There are several plausible permutations that would see them make the final with a 2-0 win in New Zealand. Take, for example, the following: South Africa lose 2-1 to both England and Australia, with Pakistan beating England and New Zealand narrowly, 2-1 and 1-0 respectively. Unless India were to beat Australia 3-1, that would see Sri Lanka take on one of India or Australia in the final.