West Indies‘ World Cup qualification bid took a serious hit when they lost to Zimbabwe in the Cricket World Cup Qualifier in Harare yesterday (June 24) – they may now need a faultless Super Six stage to make the tournament in India later this year.

Zimbabwe beat West Indies by 35 runs at the Harare Sports Club. It was their second victory over the West Indies in their last three matches and gave them valuable points in the Group A table. For the West Indies, it massively complicates their path to qualification.

This is because of the way the CWC Qualifier works. Ten teams are competing for two spots in the main tournament, and for the first stage of the Qualifier, they have been split into two groups. Each team will play all the other members of their group once, with each victory worth two points. The three teams with the most points in each group at the end of the stage will advance to the Super Six.

In Group A, Zimbabwe, West Indies and the Netherlands have all already qualified for the Super Six. Nepal and the USA have both failed to secure enough points to stay in the competition. That means that, despite their loss to Zimbabwe, the West Indies will go through to the Super Six, regardless of the result of their final group game against the Netherlands tomorrow (June 26).

Where the loss becomes important is in the format of the Super Six. Each side will play three games in the Super Six, one against each team that qualified from the other group. Thus, the West Indies will play Sri Lanka, Oman and Scotland. However, teams will carry forward the results of the matches they played against the sides from their own group in the group stage, into the Super Six points table. The West Indies will therefore carry forward no points from their loss to Zimbabwe. They will also carry forward any points or NRR implications from their result against the Netherlands.

Zimbabwe will carry through four points from the group stage, as will Sri Lanka if they beat Scotland in their final game. The West Indies will carry forward a maximum of two if they beat the Netherlands. If they lose to the Netherlands, they will effectively be out of the running as they will have to win all their Super Six games while hoping Sri Lanka and Zimbabwe win no more than one. Even then, in that scenario qualification would still come down to NRR.

However, if West Indies beat the Netherlands as expected, they will still more or less need to win all of their Super Six games. Their fixture against Sri Lanka is the most important for their qualification. It is important to note that with so many NRR unknowns at the current stage of the competition, as well as so many matches left to play, it is impossible to collate an exhaustive list of qualification scenarios for West Indies.

If they beat Sri Lanka, as well as Oman and Scotland, they will be on eight points (assuming they also beat the Netherlands in the group stage). In this scenario, Sri Lanka could finish with a maximum of eight points, while Zimbabwe would also finish on eight points if they lose to Sri Lanka, ten if they beat them. That would bring the equation down to NRR. In short, West Indies has to hope that either Sri Lanka or Zimbabwe lose at least one of their Super Six games, while they themselves win all three.

But if West Indies lose to Sri Lanka, their path is even harder and less in their hands. In this scenario, West Indies could finish on a maximum of six points. Their only way through then would be to hope one of Sri Lanka and Zimbabwe lose two games in the Super Six. That would rely on at least one of Oman, Scotland, or the Netherlands pulling off an unexpected victory. Even then, the West Indies would finish tied on six points and have to rely on securing a superior NRR to their equivalents.

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