The Super Six stage of the 2023 World Cup Qualifier starts tomorrow (June 29), with six teams fighting it out to end up in the top two and book a spot in the ODI World Cup in India later this year. Here’s all you need to know about the chances of each team heading into the next phase of the competition.

The group stage of the World Cup Qualifier has come to a close with Zimbabwe, Netherlands, and West Indies qualifying for the Super Six from Group A. Sri Lanka, Scotland, and Oman are the qualifiers from Group B.

Teams will carry forward the points which they gained from their matches with the other two qualifiers in their group. Each team will play three games, one each against each of the teams that have qualified from the other group.

The top two teams at the end of the fixtures will qualify for the main World Cup, and compete in a Final to determine the winner of the World Cup Qualifier.

Sri Lanka

Points and Net run rate carried forward: Four, +2.698
Teams to play: Netherlands, Zimbabwe, West Indies

Sri Lanka are at the top of the table in the Super Six thanks to their insanely high net run rate. Among all the teams in the Super Six, they are the best placed to finish in the top two and qualify for the World Cup.

If they win all their games, they will reach ten points and finish on top of the table. Two wins out of three will take them to eight, a number that only three teams can possibly achieve, given their starting positions in the table. In that case, their superior net run rate should comfortably take them through.

Two losses will mean that they will finish on six points and will have to hope for other results to go their way, while three losses in the three games will reduce their top two chances to a mathematical possibility and not a realistic one.

Zimbabwe

Points and Net run rate carried forward: Four, +0.982
Teams to play: Oman, Sri Lanka, Scotland

Zimbabwe will start the Super Six placed second in the points table. They won all their games in the group stage convincingly and are looking like one of the favourites in the tournament at the moment.

Wins in all three games will see them finish top of the table. Even two victories and a loss will take them to eight points and almost guarantee a top-two finish and a subsequent World Cup spot. Anything less than two victories, however, will mean that they will have to depend on other results to go their way. Given their much superior net run rate, if they end up tied at six points, they’ll have a definite advantage.

Three losses, on the other hand, will drastically diminish, if not completely eliminate their chances of qualification.

Scotland

Points and Net run rate carried forward: Two, -0.060
Teams to play: West Indies, Netherlands, Zimbabwe

Scotland can get to a maximum of eight points if they win all their games. If that happens, and if either Sri Lanka defeat Zimbabwe or lose two of their three games, then Scotland will end up in the top two.

Two victories from three games will take Scotland to six points. They will need several results to favour them in that case. While complicated, it will still keep their chances open for a top-two finish. Anything less than two victories will almost certainly be curtains for them, especially given their negative net run rate.

Netherlands

Points and Net run rate carried forward: Two, -0.739
Teams to play: Sri Lanka, Scotland, Oman

Netherlands are placed fourth on the Super Six table as their net run rate is worse than Scotland’s. They have a similar equation, with three wins enough to get them to eight points and give them a solid chance of finishing in the top two.

Two wins will still keep them in the hunt at six points, but they’ll have to register big victories and a not-so-big loss in that case as net run rate will come into the picture. One victory or less will mean that their World Cup hopes will be all but over.

While their equation looks similar to that of Scotland, they will feel that they have a slight upper hand as their fixtures are relatively easier than Scotland’s. They are also carrying more momentum with them, having pulled off a famous victory against the West Indies in their last group fixture.

West Indies

Points and Net run rate carried forward: Zero, -0.350
Teams to play: Scotland, Oman, Sri Lanka

West Indies have a very slight mathematical possibility of finishing in the top two after their disappointing show across the group stage. They need to win all of their three games to reach six points to stay in the hunt.

Then they will have to hope that either Zimbabwe win all their games and the Netherlands lose at least one, leading to a two or three-way tie on six points between themselves, Netherlands, and Sri Lanka. Or they will need Sri Lanka to win all their games except against the West Indies, and Scotland to defeat Zimbabwe, leading to a two or three-way tie between themselves, Zimbabwe, and either Scotland or Netherlands.

All this will require a lot of things to go their way, along with three big enough victories to take their net run rate past the other teams.

Oman

Points and Net run rate carried forward: Zero, -3.042
Teams to play: Zimbabwe, West Indies, Netherlands

Oman will start the Super Six on zero points just like the West Indies, but their net run rate is so poor that their top two chances are infinitesimally lesser than that of West Indies. They need to win all three games, and win them extremely big. Even after that, they’ll need a lot of other results to go in their favour.

While their own chances of qualification for the World Cup are slim, they can take a few teams down with them as they go along in the Super Six.

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