India are almost there, but they shouldn’t make the mistake of taking Zimbabwe lightly

There was a time when India-Zimbabwe matches used to be relatively tightly fought, riveting white-ball affairs. The sight of Henry Olonga piercing through India’s top order, Douglas Marillier scooping Zaheer Khan, or Andy Flower punching quicks through covers can probably still bring a tinge of fear among Indian fans. A lot has fallen off for Zimbabwe since, both in the cricketing sense and in the geopolitical landscape. The red-versus-blue affair probably does not exude the same charm.

It is fair to say that the contest, for the most part of the last decade and more, has become lopsided. In T20Is, India hold a 5-2 advantage – but that was when they sent second-string teams in 2015 and 2016, when the teams clashed in a T20I for the last time.

Despite the past record, India has a lot more to lose in Sunday’s T20 World Cup clash than Zimbabwe. Already out of the competition, Zimbabwe may end up playing party poopers to India. And while their track record might not say so, a victory against Pakistan and a near-miss against Bangladesh speak of a team willing to play out of their skin when it matters.

So, can Zimbabwe realistically pull off a win? It is not an outlandish thought. It may go down to how they go about against Indian batters in the first six overs.

Currently, India has the second-worst powerplay run rate in this T20 World Cup (5.54), after the UAE. Their opening partnerships read 7 in 11 balls, 11 in 16, 23 in 26, and 11 in 20. That is a sub-100 strike rate and a wicket down in the first few overs, when quick scoring is of the essence. In terms of the bigger picture, the sluggish starts have had a poor effect on India’s overall net run rate, which is currently the lowest among the top three teams of Group 2.

In the Super 12s, Zimbabwe took two wickets each in the powerplay against Bangladesh and Pakistan, and one against the Netherlands. They could not claim one in the three overs against South Africa before rain intervened.

Virat Kohli and Suryakumar Yadav have been India’s most consistent batters, but there has not been a lot on either side them. Rohit’s fifty against the Netherlands was scratchy, and he has only managed 4, 15 and 2 in the other games. Before his return-to-form fifty against Bangladesh, KL Rahul looked in woeful touch, stringing together 4, 4, and 9. Hardik Pandya and Dinesh Karthik have looked rusty. Factor in an off day for Kohli and Surya, and it does not really look like a world-beating lineup at that moment.

And that is where the pace trio of Tendai Chatara, Richard Ngarava and Blessing Muzarabani come into the picture. Muzarabani, currently the third-highest wicket-taker in the tournament, has been the most impressive, having taken five wickets across three innings in the Super 12s, his economy rate not crossing 6.50 in either of those spells. Chatara and Ngarava have all played supporting roles, with Zimbabwe shuttling between Brad Evans and Luke Jongwe for the rest of the fast overs.

Against Pakistan, the early wickets of Mohammad Rizwan and Babar Azam gave Zimbabwe the upper hand early in the chase; Evans managed to hold his nerves exceptionally well to defend 11 runs off the last over.

And we have not even mentioned Sikandar Raza, Zimbabwe’s superstar of an all-rounder, who has himself taken nine wickets at 15.33 in this edition, including three against Pakistan. Add Sean Williams, and you have a well-rounded attack capable of giving any lineup a scare on their day.

There is no doubt that Zimbabwe would need an exceptional day [and India, a really poor day] to put up a serious challenge. Their batting has not clicked the way they would have wanted [they are yet to cross 150 in the Super 12s]; and barring Raza and Williams [and to a certain extent, Wesley Madhevere], none of the rest have put their hands up.

Yet, it might not be a cakewalk for India, who by virtue of their relatively low net run rate, need a win to secure a semi-final berth. It is likely to end up being a contest between Zimbabwe’s bowling and India’s batting. A few quick wickets, and they might put themselves in a position of doing the unexpected. This side just cannot be taken lightly. Ask Babar Azam & co, who probably made that mistake in Perth.

Not to forget that this tournament itself has been full of surprises: Namibia, Ireland, Scotland and UAE have all notched up famous wins. Zimbabwe pulled off their own upset of sorts against Pakistan, and there is little reason for them to not do that again. If they do – and it will take an effort and a half – Melbourne will go down in the annals of great India-Zimbabwe matches. It has probably been a while since the last entry in there. Probably, cricket needs a bit more of those.

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