How Bangladesh can still qualify for the T20 World Cup semi-finals, despite losing three out of three

Bangladesh have not had a great T20 World Cup campaign so far, to put it mildly.

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They came into the event as dark horses, having downed Australia and New Zealand in two five-match series preceding the tournament. However, a shock defeat in their opening game against Scotland meant they faced a battle just to make it to the Super 12s, and though they managed that, they have since lost their first three games in the second stage, leaving them on the brink of elimination.

However, despite only being able to finish the Super 12s with two wins, Bangladesh aren’t quite out of contention, mathematically at least. There are six teams in the group, and so if one team wins all five of their games, it’s theoretically possible for the other five sides to finish level on two wins each, at which point the second semi-finalist to qualify would be decided on net run rate.

This is unlikely, and requires a specific set of results to come to pass. If even one match goes awry, that will be it for Bangladesh’s hopes. But it is possible.

Firstly, they need England to beat Australia in their game tomorrow. Since Bangladesh are still yet to play Australia, if Australia were to beat England, it would be impossible for both Australia to win all five games and for Bangladesh to win two games, since that would require both Bangladesh and Australia winning their fixture against each other.

However, since England have already played and beaten Bangladesh, a win for Eoin Morgan’s team would see them stay in the hunt. Bangladesh would then want England to win their remaining two fixtures against Sri Lanka and South Africa, and for Australia to lose their last two games, which are against West Indies and Bangladesh.

Bangladesh would then need to beat South Africa, and hope South Africa beat Sri Lanka, while also requiring Sri Lanka to beat West Indies, leaving all five teams other than England tied on two wins each, with net run rate therefore deciding the group.