Despite not making it to the final in either of the first two editions, South Africa are dark horses at the 2023-25 World Test Championship.

Of the nine teams at the 2023-25 World Test Championship, South Africa are the only one to have not started their campaign yet. They are finally about to get going with the first Test match of the Freedom Trophy, from Boxing Day.

South Africa finished fifth in the 2019-21 WTC. In the next edition, in 2021-23, they came third with a PCT (percentage of points won out of points contested) of 55.6, not too far behind second-placed India’s 58.8. This time, they are firm favourites to improve on that with a berth in the final.

South Africa will play six two-match Test series in the league stage of the 2023-25 World Test Championship. They will begin with India on home soil.

India have been the most consistent side in the format over the past decade – their win-loss ratio of 2 is the best by some distance, and they have made it to both WTC finals – but they are yet to win a Test series in South Africa. The home fans will back their team as favourites for the series. A drawn series should be the minimum expectation.

South Africa travel to New Zealand next, for two Test matches. As with India, history will yet again be on South Africa’s side: they have not lost a series to New Zealand, home or away, in 17 attempts. Yet, this will be among their most difficult campaigns at this WTC, for their big guns will be busy playing the SA20.

Even if South Africa fail in New Zealand, their next Test matches – two, again – will be in the West Indies, immediately after the T20 World Cup. Barring the one-off Test of 1991/92, South Africa have won each of the nine series between the sides, and have not lost a Test match there since April 2001.

A more difficult tour awaits them in October. Not only South Africa, none of the four ‘SENA’ nations have won a Test series in Bangladesh since England’s 2-0 triumph in 2009/10. On South Africa’s last tour, in 2015, both Test matches were washed out, but there was no evidence of South Africa being the dominant side. This time, they will be severely tested by spin – in Shakib Al Hasan’s presence or otherwise – on pitches that suit that kind of bowling.

South Africa will conclude the league stage with two home series – against Pakistan in November and Sri Lanka around the New Year.

Pakistan have a 2-12 head-to-head in South Africa: they have not won a Test there since January 2007, and have lost their last seven matches in the country.

Sri Lanka (3-13) have fared slightly better than Pakistan, especially recently. True, they were swept aside 2-0 in 2020/21, but two years before that, Sri Lanka became the first Asian side to win a Test series in South Africa, that too by a 2-0 margin.

Given the recent results and current team strengths, South Africa should back themselves to sweep the West Indies, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka by 2-0 margins, and at least draw the series against India, New Zealand, and Bangladesh 1-1.

That will give them nine wins in 12 Test matches – in other words, 108 points out of a maximum possible 144. The PCT of 75 is more than the India’s 72.2 in the 2019-21 edition, still the best by a side in the league stage.

If South Africa win eight out of 12, they will still end up with 66.67, matching Australia’s tally in 2021-23. One must remember that Australia had topped the league stage in that edition.

Subscribe to the Wisden Cricket YouTube channel for post-match analysis, player interviews, and much more.