Shubman Gill could have had the unluckiest of all Indian Test debuts. He was picked for the second Test match of India’s 2020/21 tour of Australia. India had been bowled out for 36 – their lowest score in Test cricket – in the previous match. Gill replaced Prithvi Shaw, his former captain at India Under-19s at the top.

In a way, Gill’s job was more difficult than Shaw’s, for India had decided to bolster their attack by picking the extra bowler. Yet, he started his career with 45 and 35 not out at Melbourne, 50 and 31 at Sydney, and 7 and 91 at Brisbane as India pulled off one of the greatest comebacks of all time.

It was not a fluke. India had identified Gill early. If anything, they had probably drafted him too soon, for the ODIs in New Zealand before the 2019 World Cup. He made two forgettable appearances, but not before Virat Kohli admitted to not being “10 percent of Shubman Gill” at 19.

Before that debut, Gill had played eight unofficial ‘Tests’ for India A, and had amassed 970 runs at 88.18. If anything, he was destined to click at the highest level, as he did on one of the most difficult Test match tours with 259 runs at 51.80. He seemed destined for greatness.

If the world did not seem his oyster at this point, it certainly did during his second coming in limited-overs cricket. As Rohit Sharma often missed ODI tours, Gill made 638 ODI runs at 70.88 and a strike rate of 103 in 2022.

In 2023, he stepped up even beyond that, at one point threatening to break Sachin Tendulkar’s long-standing record of 1,894 runs in a calendar year. He made his T20I debut, did reasonably well (hit a hundred, struck at 145), won the IPL Orange Cap, and was named Gujarat Titans captain by the end of the year.

Yet, despite the highs of 2023, not everything had been perfect for him. Since his incredible debut series, Gill has made 735 runs from 16 Test matches at 27.22. Over the same period, only Henry Nicholls and Ajinkya Rahane have a lower average among those who have batted in the top six at least 25 times. Of them, Rahane has probably played his last Test match.

There have been two hundreds, but neither were particularly memorable, nor important given the state of the match. The first came at Chattogram, after India batted a second time despite having a 264-run lead; and the second at Ahmedabad, in a Test match where only 22 wickets fell across five days.

At this point, his career average – including that maiden Test tour – reads 31.06, the lowest among 21st-century Indian batters who have batted 35 times in the top six. All this makes sorry reading for India’s blue-eyed boy.

Of course, the Indian team management was aware of this. India dropped Cheteshwar Pujara after their defeat in the 2021-23 World Test Championship final against Australia, presumably with an eye on the next cycle. As replacement, they did not get a No.3 but picked two openers for the West Indies tour: Yashasvi Jaiswal and Ruturaj Gaikwad.

Jaiswal opened with Rohit Sharma in the Test matches, and grabbed the opportunity by smashing a hundred on debut. Demoted to one-drop, Gill made 6, 10, and 29 not out in the three innings. It’s not wrong to assume that he was picked for the South Africa Tests based on his form in the other formats.

He struggled in Centurion. In the first innings, Kagiso Rabada hit him on the ribcage off the sixth ball he faced. Six balls later, he gloved a ball from Nandre Burger down the leg-side to the wicketkeeper, and that was that.

He started better in the second innings, dispatching Rabada to the leg-side boundary twice off the first five balls he faced. Rabada responded by finding Gill’s edge – this one went for four as well – and beating the bat.

Yet, it was perhaps a curious willingness to go after everything that brought his early demise. He put Marco Jansen away for two consecutive fours, but when he tried another, he played too much across the line and was bowled.

Neither dismissal was to a great ball. Both shots could have been avoided. Given his outstanding form, it was perhaps understandable why he had backed himself, but to succeed by attacking on the Centurion pitch against a world-class pace attack, Gill needed to ride on luck. And luck deserted him.

One may argue that batters have had ordinary starts to their careers before finding their mojo. If Gill struggles against the moving ball, pushing him down the order could have been an option.

But there is a problem there as well. India had dropped KL Rahul, their opener, midway through the Australia series at home earlier this year. Like Gill, Rahul found his way back on the other side of an injury through limited-overs cricket. Unlike Gill, however, Rahul can keep wicket – and has improved at it – enabling India to risk him behind the stumps ahead of a full-time gloveman.

With Rohit and Virat Kohli in the XI and Rahul keeping wicket, India can accommodate three more batters in the side. With a hundred on debut and only three Test matches into his career, Jaiswal is likely to be backed.

Shreyas Iyer, too, seemed in decent nick during his 31 in the first innings. He added 58 with Kohli after coming out at 24-3, and got out to a virtually unplayable ball. He also averages 41.35 – significantly more than Gill – and his ability to bat against spin will help him retain his place when England come over for a five-match Test series.

Unfortunately, Gill has not done himself any favour with his record on home soil (417 runs at 32.07 including 128 on that Ahmedabad pitch). Apart from his obvious credentials in other formats, there is no actual reason for India to back him in the England series.

As is often the case, heads are likely to roll after a heavy defeat. Unless Gill turns things around at Newlands – he obviously is gifted enough to do that – his place in the XI may be in jeopardy after the South Africa tour.