Axar Patel‘s performance across formats in the year could be a factor in how his Test career shapes up, argues Rohit Sankar.

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Four five-wicket hauls, a Test bowling average of 10.59 and a best of 11-70. Those are lofty numbers, but they accurately reflect the impact Axar Patel has had on his introduction to Test cricket. Against an England side that appeared daunting after a win in the first Test, Axar, untethered from his past, and with little pressure to fight for a place, taunted them with his accuracy and subtle, smart variations.

Ravi Shastri, true to type, was unflinching as he lavished praise on the left-arm spinner after the fourth Test against England.

“Axar Patel, seasoned campaigner, I wouldn’t call him a youngster,” Shastri said. “He’s been around the Indian team for years, he’s been very unlucky with injuries. A lot of other players have got opportunities because of his injuries, including the likes of [Ravindra] Jadeja, including the likes of Krunal Pandya – because he’s been injured. This is the time when he was injury free, and he made the most of it.”

That’s huge praise for someone playing his first Test series, but Axar isn’t the first spinner to be overwhelmed with big words by Shastri after a series win. Go back to Australia, 2019 and Kuldeep Yadav, sitting on a five-wicket haul in the last Test at SCG, impressed Shastri so much that the coach waited little before adorning him with the tag of “No.1 spinner in overseas Tests”. Kuldeep did not play a Test match for more than two years since, home or away.

It might seem strange to suggest Axar may not play another Test match for years, but is it really that big a stretch? The first sentence Shastri said after being effusive in his praise for Axar is how Ravindra Jadeja is “one of the best all-rounders” in the world. The two are pretty similar bowlers and with a world-class spinner like Ravichandran Ashwin also in the mix, if everyone is fit then there’s little chance of Axar playing a Test, even at home, unless India play three spinners or injury forces a change.

That his arrival also coincides with a time India’s fast bowling revolution is well and truly on further dents Axar’s chances. From the start of 2018 until the start of the England Test series – when India inclined more towards turning tracks – India’s fast bowlers had taken more wickets at home than their spinners. A three-pronged spin attack with Axar, especially when one of them is in a similar mold, seems unlikely, especially when his batting credentials are still unproven.

India’s firm backing of incumbent players in the Test side also does not favour Axar. It would take sustained, significant loss of form for India to look past Jadeja or Ashwin, rather than just a promising young player announcing himself. In the last two years, Rishabh Pant is the only one who has broken into the Test team and cemented his spot by replacing a non-injured player. It took a serious drop in form for Shikhar Dhawan and KL Rahul for the selectors to move to Mayank Agarwal – he had a mind-boggling domestic season in 2017 where he racked up 1,000 runs in 27 days including a triple hundred – at the top of the order. Even that didn’t last long as Shubman Gill forced his way in.

Pant, meanwhile, had to, according to Shastri, “work his backside off”, to become a regular feature in the Test side. The Mayank and Pant examples speak enough about the closed circle that this current Indian side is. Merely performing in the opportunities presented at the level won’t cut it to become a permanent feature in this Test side. Replacing an incumbent player is quite a task even when the numbers taper off – think of the Rahane-Vihari debate as another example – for the one in the team.

It’s interesting that Axar’s challenge to pushing for more consistent game time in the future is similar to what Kuldeep faced. After the Australia series win in 2018/19, India’s focus turned to limited-overs cricket with the IPL followed by the 2019 World Cup. Kuldeep spiralled down in this phase, a confidence-hit that perhaps affected his Test chances too.

Axar faces a similar timeline. The IPL starts in a month followed by the World Test Championship and a Test series in England, where his chances of making the XI are  slim even if Jadeja is still not fit. A slew of limited-overs games dot the weeks before the T20 World Cup. The next home series is the one Axar will be targeting, but whether he actually makes the XI then depends on quite a few things including his form in the period running up to the series and the availability of the other spinners in the side.

It’s no easy task being a fringe player in a dominating sports team. Axar has nailed the honeymoon period, but how the marriage goes will depend on his follow-up performances across formats and in the domestic scene.

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