Shubman Gill rated England as having a 30 percent chance of victory at the end of the third day of the second Test at Visakhapatnam, despite India setting a record target in the fourth innings.

Gill was key on day three, making his second Test century to take India to 211-4. However, his dismissal, gloving a reverse-sweep off Shoaib Bashir, precipitated a collapse to 255 all out, Tom Hartley taking four wickets and Rehan Ahmed three after James Anderson had struck twice at the start of the day.

No side has ever chased 399 to win in the country, as England need, with the 384 chased by India at Chennai in 2008 top of the tree. For touring teams the mark is more than 100 runs lower, West Indies chasing 276 in 1987.

Despite this, Gill did not rate India as overwhelming favourites, only saying his side were “in the game” when speaking to the broadcasters at stumps. “I think it’s about 70-30 at the moment,” he said. “The morning session will be a very important one because we have seen there is a bit of moisture for the fast bowlers and the spinners especially in the first session. If we get the right amount of balls in the right areas tomorrow morning I think we should be good.”

Sir Alastair Cook, who had earlier spoken about how the “fear of Bazball” had impacted India’s cautious tail-end batting, felt the assessment was also an insight into India’s mindset.

"I don’t know if intimidating is the right word, but it’s putting different thoughts in the opposition’s minds and captain’s minds. They were quite cautious, even when they had a big lead."

India were nervous but England are calm, James Anderson says.https://t.co/ICoNRW9zYK

— Wisden (@WisdenCricket) February 4, 2024

“This is the effect of Bazball,” he said. “I think we actually saw it in the last little bit of the session there. I cannot remember an India side ever, with the last four or five overs to go, not having anyone around the bat to their spinners. The third evening, they’ve just got Ben Duckett out, and even when Ben Duckett was in, they only had a slip. They might have had a gully, but to not have a short leg or silly point, it’s almost mind-boggling the effect that this has had on the opposition.

“No other side has ever got near this in the subcontinent. We’re talking about it, that there is a small possibility, only because of what Ben Stokes has drilled into this side and what this side have done. They’ve got a world-class spinner, almost 500 Test wickets, it’s turning, it’s bouncing, you saw Ben Duckett trying to play the sweep shot but he can’t because of the extra bounce and turn, and there’s no one around the bat to Ahmed and Zak Crawley. If i’d have been out there batting in previous times, you’d have had definitely short leg, silly point, gully, you’d probably have five men around the bat, and that’s pressure. But because of this impact that Ben Stokes and this England team have had on world cricket, sides are so scared of the runs that they are scoring that England are having it easier.”