The speculations are over. India included both Rohit Sharma – as captain – and Virat Kohli for the three-match T20I series against Afghanistan. Since this is India’s last series in the format before the T20 World Cup, they as good as made it clear that both men will be part of the squad for the big event.

Neither Rohit nor Kohli has played T20Is since India’s unceremonious exit from the 2022 T2o World Cup. At that ill-fated semi-final, Rohit made 27 and Kohli 50. Between them, they used up 68 balls out of the maximum possible 120. As a result, Rishabh Pant came to the crease with two overs left. None of Axar Patel, R Ashwin, or Bhuvneshwar Kumar faced a ball.

In limited-overs cricket, an innings ends when a team runs out of at least one of their two resources: balls and wickets. In an attempt to preserve the latter that day – on a flat pitch, as England demonstrated later by making a mockery of the target of 169 – India ran out of the former. It was befitting, for India’s powerplay strike rate at that World Cup (6.02) was the third-worst of the 16 teams. In contrast, England scored at 8.60.

At the T20 World Cup, this was not the first time India batted first, put up an inadequate total, and lost. Before the 2022 semi-final, they had lost the final in 2014 and the semi-final in 2016, two league matches in 2021, and even the South Africa match of 2022.

Rohit and Kohli were the only Indians who were part of all six defeats. Perhaps it is unfair to club both together, for Kohli’s numbers (average 58.80, strike rate 132) in these matches make significantly better reading than Rohit’s (21.33 and 112).

But this is not about Rohit versus Kohli. It cannot be. If one is picked in the XI, so will the other. Fans know that. Pundits know that. Anyone who knows Indian cricket knows that. The alternative is too blasphemous to expect of a relatively new selection panel.

Let us, thus, keep this to Rohit and Kohli, and the impact of having both in the XI. Across the six matches mentioned above, Kohli’s average outing resulted in 49 from 37 balls, and Rohit’s 21 in 19. While it is not difficult to see why Rohit’s numbers are ordinary, it is important to understand that so are Kohli’s. Add them, you get 70 runs in 56 balls, nearly half the team innings – while setting a target.

Six matches make a small sample, of course. But across their careers, Rohit has made 31 in 22 balls per innings and Kohli 33 in 23 balls while batting first. Remove that bat-first filter, and the numbers read 28 in 20 for Rohit, and 37 in 27 for Kohli. A lot of runs, but not at a rate quick enough. Perhaps more alarmingly, a lot of balls faced as well.

It is not that they dominated Twenty20 cricket in the interim period. Rohit struck at 133 in the 2023 IPL, the quickest he has scored at since the 2018 edition. Kohli’s 140 was his fastest since 2019 as well, but that number conceals 110 against spin in the middle overs, a phase where, as the one-drop bat, he is almost certain to bat.

Were there options?

Since the 2022 T20 World Cup, India won 16 T20Is and lost seven. Among ICC Full Members, their win-loss ratio of 2.285 has been next to only Bangladesh’s 3.333.

Over this period, India beat New Zealand home and away; Sri Lanka at home; and Ireland and South Africa away. They also won the gold medal at the Asian Games. Their only defeat came against the West Indies.

India gave out maiden T20I caps to several players in this phase, recalled a few, and stuck to the others. Yashasvi Jaiswal, Shubman Gill, Rinku Singh, Tilak Varma (and in brief stints, Rahul Tripathi and Jitesh Sharma) all scored quicker at rates in excess of 140. Some even breached the 150-mark.

With Suryakumar Yadav firmly establishing himself as the greatest batter in the format and Hardik Pandya providing the balance, it would have been logical to stick to these batters.

Why, then, did India return to Rohit and Kohli?

Format is temporary, form is permanent?

There is no doubt about the greatness of Rohit and Kohli in ODIs. Rohit will almost certainly open batting in an all-time Indian XI. For Kohli, even a spot in an all-time World XI will not be overdoing things. Their ODI runs and batting averages bear testimony to their credentials.

But ODIs and T20Is are vastly different formats. If seven cricketers are expected to bat in an XI, they can take their time in an ODI – for they can face 43 balls on an average. In Twenty20, that count is 17. Here, 120 is an less than ordinary score, which makes – barring exceptional circumstances – every single a win for the bowling side.

The ODI parameters do not apply here. A high average at an slightly sub-par strike rate makes one a decent ODI batter. In Twenty20 cricket, it can mean the batter takes up too many balls without scoring as quickly as needed.

Yet, it will be difficult to discount the terrific form they were in during the 2023 World Cup. In the powerplay, Rohit smashed 401 runs at a strike rate of 135. He hit 46 fours and 24 sixes in 297 balls – a boundary at a little over four balls. Can he not go up a few notches in a shorter format?

Kohli, on the other hand, seems to be headed for a second peak on the other side of a three-year slump. Throughout 2023, he amassed runs with once-familiar consistency, culminating in a World Cup where he set a new record for tournament aggregate. In the Test matches in South Africa, not only was he India’s best batter but he also seemed to be as good as ever.

There is another aspect as well. Pandya was India’s de facto captain when Rohit sat out of the T20Is. There is no update on when he will return. Yadav, who filled in for Pandya, is out of action as well, though he is likelier to return in time. Jasprit Bumrah, India’s other T20I captain, has been rested for the Afghanistan series.

India needed a captain. In Rohit’s absence, they have been picking the squad first, and named a captain from there. Now, after years, they as good as picked the captain before the squad.

The obvious pitfall

KL Rahul completed the top three across the last two editions of the T20 World Cup. With Jaiswal and Gill – not to speak of Gaikwad – all vying for the second opener’s spot, Rahul will have little option but to look for a spot down the order. He has, after all, done that successfully of late in both Test cricket and ODIs.

If Yadav and Pandya both return, India will be left with one place. That will leave India to pick one from Rinku, Tilak, and Jitesh in the XI, after having to leave out one of Gill and Jaiswal. If Rahul does not play, another from India’s “new generation” will make it.

Between the 2022 and 2024 T20 World Cups, India tried out several batters with success. They are now set to leave them some of them out in favour of Rohit and Kohli, who have been part of four disappointing editions together. If it backfires, two years of work will go waste.

On the other hand, if the selection does come off, it will perhaps heal a billion heartbreaks of the 2023 World Cup final.