If Dawid Malan’s 95 at The Oval confirmed it, his century at Lord’s was a victory lap.

Two days ago, Malan played second fiddle to the Ben Stokes show, ticking over the strike rate and picking up boundaries as the leading actor delivered his monologue at the other end. But, in terms of England’s World Cup XI, Malan’s was the more important knock. As soon as he made the decision to un-retire, Stokes’ place in the side was secure. For Malan, his return, as well as that of Joe Root, Jonny Bairstow and the continued threat of Harry Brook, all put his place in jeopardy.

But, by taking advantage of Jason Roy’s back spasms, which had kept him out of the series before today, and continuing to score runs at almost every opportunity, he’s managed to edge ahead of one-half of England’s greatest-ever ODI opening partnership. As he reached three figures at Lord’s, that edge became a head and shoulder’s worth. Roy trained vigorously ahead of the fourth ODI, but still Malan was selected ahead of him. Roy may be added to England’s squad to face Ireland to give him three more knocks to rediscover form. But time is running out.

To leave Roy out of the starting XI for a World Cup title defence is a big deal. He’s scored centuries in both of England’s last two ODI series, his latest coming just two innings ago. He’s played the most ODI cricket of any of England’s 2019 cohort of batters returning to the side for this year’s World Cup. It’s also worth remembering Roy’s significance in the last edition of the tournament.

He was injured for three matches towards the back end of the round-robin stage, the second two of which England lost. In both of those games, their opening partnership failed. When Roy came back in, he scored three consecutive half-centuries. England’s fifty-over approach has been built on the success of their opening partnership. Scoring quickly in the powerplay, allowing their openers the freedom to trust someone will succeed below them if they fail, gave Roy in particular the space to play in his own style.

However, the side heading out for India is not the one that lifted the trophy at Lord’s in 2019. While Malan can match Roy for aggression, he picks up the pace later in the innings rather than attacking from ball one. With less time for England’s muscle memory to kick in to remind them how to play the format, Malan’s stability and consistency is might be more valuable than Roy’s unpredictability. Perhaps unfairly in terms of his superior fifty-over record, his declining T20 form also has a part to play in the view he’s currently held in.

Dawid Malan departs for a superb 127 off 114 balls at Lord’s 💯

His ODI record is simply outstanding.#ENGvNZ pic.twitter.com/gOagul1Ebv

— Wisden (@WisdenCricket) September 15, 2023

Where it gets even more tricky for Roy is what his role is if he doesn’t make the starting XI. The balance England have opted for in their XV means that only one batter in their squad will not make the XI. When that batter was Malan, he could have easily swapped in for any player in the top four suffering with a niggle. In a six-week tournament, that’s a highly likely scenario.

If Roy is that spare batter, with Malan as Baristow’s partner, injury cover for a non-opener becomes more complicated. Roy would have to come in as an opener, and Malan would likely have to move further down the order, causing a higher level of disruption. A better option for England’s breadth of injury cover would be to have a more versatile option – Brook – as the batting cover outside of the regular XI.

That would mean Roy ducking out of the squad only a few weeks before the tournament starts. It would be an incredibly tough call to make on a batter who’s capable of what Roy is. But, the reality is that if he’s not in England’s best XI, then he isn’t in their most balanced XV.

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