England suffered their sixth defeat of the 2023 World Cup, by 33 runs against Australia at the Narendra Modi Stadium in Ahmedabad on November 4. Here is how their path to Champions Trophy qualification looks like now.

World Cup 2023: What is the criterion for Champions Trophy qualification?

The criterion for qualifying for the 2025 Champions Trophy is straightforward. The top seven teams on the 2023 World Cup points table after the league stage except Pakistan will qualify for the Champions Trophy.

Since Pakistan are the designated hosts for the tournament, they will gain automatic qualification.

ICC threw the Champions Trophy qualification curveball mid-way through the ongoing 2023 World Cup, catching a lot of fans and even some teams by surprise as they now had an added incentive of finishing inside the top eight.

World Cup 2023: Where do England stand currently?

After their loss against Australia in Ahmedabad, England are currently sitting at the bottom of the table with just two points from seven games. Above them are Bangladesh with the same number of points from the same number of games, but a better net run rate.

Sri Lanka and the Netherlands are seventh and eighth respectively with four points from seven games each, while New Zealand, Pakistan, and Afghanistan are fourth, fifth, and sixth respectively with eight points each.

England have two more games left – against the Netherlands on November 8 and against Pakistan on November 11.

World Cup 2023: How can England qualify for the Champions Trophy?

With eight points from eight games, Pakistan are currently fifth on the points table. The lowest they can possibly finish on is seventh, which means that an eighth-place finish will be enough for England to qualify for the Champions Trophy.

The simplest way to achieve that would be for England to win both their remaining games, hope that Bangladesh lose at least one of their two games, and that India beat Netherlands in the last league game of the World Cup on November 12.

That way, England will finish on six points, while Netherlands and Bangladesh will finish on four or fewer. That will be enough for England to qualify for the Champions Trophy.

England can finish eighth and qualify even if Bangladesh win their remaining games and the Netherlands beat India (assuming England win both matches), but in that scenario, net run rate will decide the rankings since each of the three teams will finish on six points.

Another possibility is of Sri Lanka losing both matches, and either the Netherlands losing to India or Bangladesh to Australia or both. In that case, Sri Lanka, Netherlands, and Bangladesh would all end up on four points. England winning their last two games will ensure that they end up on six and finish as high as seventh on the points table, more than enough for Champions Trophy qualification.

In the worst case scenario, England can afford to lose one more game out of their last two and still qualify for the Champions Trophy. Here is how.

If they lose against the Netherlands, England will have to hope that Bangladesh beat Sri Lanka and lose against Australia, and New Zealand beat Sri Lanka as well. That will level England, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka on four points each, with net run rate deciding who ends up where.

On the other hand, if England beat the Netherlands and lose against Pakistan, they’ll hope that either

• Bangladesh lose both matches and the Netherlands lose against India. That will tie Netherlands and England on four points each for the eighth and ninth spots, with net run rate being the deciding factor.
• Alternately, Sri Lanka lose both matches, Bangladesh lose to Australia, and Netherlands lose to India. That, too, will tie England, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and the Netherlands on four points each with the final rankings coming down to net run rate.

England’s net run rate of -1.504 is currently the worst among the ten teams at the 2023 World Cup. With most of their Champions Trophy qualification scenarios hinging on net run rate equations, they will not only have to win but ensure that they do that with large margins and, if they lose, minimise the margins.

And if England lose both their remaining games, there’s no chance for them to qualify for the Champions Trophy.

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