England’s 2023 World Cup campaign has been going on for weeks, lurching from disaster to catastrophe, and it’s only about to get harder, with India, unbeaten hosts and tournament favourites, up next.

England have won one from five, and it would be a shock to match any in this tournament if that did not become one win from six. In fact, it might even be considered a mercy, with all hope finally extinguished.

Except even defeat to India wouldn’t – quite – knock England out of the Cricket World Cup, officially. And that’s independent of what happens between now and then.

If England are beaten by India, they will have one win with three games to play, and so can get up to a maximum of four wins. India are already clear of that marker, and South Africa and New Zealand might also be by the time England’s next game starts. Or, if Australia beat New Zealand, they will reach four wins, already putting four teams level with or above the maximum England can reach. Their situation will be desperate.

But there are combinations of results that would see only three teams clear England’s points tally, and net run rate therefore at play. Given we’re not far past the halfway point of the group stage, this might not be surprising, though from another point of view, that a team could crash and burn through the first two-thirds of their campaign and still, theoretically, be in the hunt is notable.

So how can England qualify? For starters, there really will be no margin left for error after defeat to India. While it is possible at the start of a 10-team round robin for a team to lose six games and still finish fourth, that requires a very specific permutation of results in which none of the bottom seven beat any of the top three, which is now impossible.

If England lose to India and win their next three, they will be on eight points. Assume, for the sake of illustration, that each team takes two points from the games before India v England. The following is a set of results that sees England level on points with fourth:

– India, South Africa and New Zealand win all of their games (the results between South Africa and New Zealand and South Africa and India do not matter)
– Australia lose to Afghanistan, Bangladesh and England
– Netherlands beat Afghanistan
– Bangladesh beat Pakistan and lose to Sri Lanka
– Afghanistan v Sri Lanka goes either way

Then England would be level on eight points with four other teams, and the final semi-final spot would come down to net run rate. There are minor tweaks possible to these permutations, but all involve several upsets.

So what’s the earliest England can get knocked out?

If England do lose to India, their World Cup hopes won’t yet be over, but they could be by the time they play their next game, against Australia. For example, if Pakistan win their next three, including today’s game against South Africa, New Zealand beat Australia, and South Africa beat New Zealand, then four teams would have five wins or more, and England would be out. But their pain is set to continue for a while yet.

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