England beat the Netherlands in Pune today (November 8) to break their five-match losing streak in the 2023 World Cup and lift themselves off the bottom of the table for the first time in a while.

The result boosts their chances of qualification for the 2025 Champions Trophy, which is the only positive outcome they can now hope to achieve from the tournament. For the Netherlands, the loss doesn’t end their chances of a first Champions Trophy appearance in over 20 years, with every side in the bottom four still technically in contention.

Pakistan will host the tournament in two years’ time. They automatically qualify along with the other top seven teams from the 2023 World Cup group stage. With Pakistan now certain to finish inside the top eight, England need to finish in eighth position or higher to secure qualification. After their win against the Netherlands, they sit in seventh position, above Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, as well as the Netherlands themselves.

All teams have one match remaining, with the top six out of reach of the four chasers. The last round of competition will therefore be a desperate scramble for the bottom-four sides to secure one of the remaining two qualification places.

All of those four teams are now on four points, with the most simple equation being that two teams win their final match, and the other two lose. That would mean the teams that win would secure qualification on points alone. However, all of the bottom four teams have tricky fixtures last up, with Sri Lanka playing New Zealand tomorrow (November 9), Bangladesh set to face Australia, England against Pakistan and the Netherlands rounding out the group stage against India.

Given that Sri Lanka’s fixture against New Zealand is under threat from rain, that could put them in a favourable position. If the match is washed-out, they will gain a point, which would put them up into seventh in the table and a point clear of the rest. Thus, as long as only one other side wins their final fixture, their qualification will be secure. However, if two or more of the Netherlands, England and Bangladesh win, they will finish outside qualification.

Nevertheless, under the assumption that two or more of the bottom four sides lose their remaining matches, the final order will come down to NRR. In this event, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka currently have the upper-hand over the Netherlands, while England are above all of them at this stage. But, all four teams are separated by less than 0.4 in NRR terms. Thus, if three or more of the teams lose their last matches, it will likely be a case of who loses by the smallest margin.

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