A week ago, New Zealand faced off with hosts India in a top-of-the-table clash to decide who would remain the only unbeaten side at the halfway stage of the campaign. Now they face a battle to make the World Cup semi-finals.

Both had won four games from four, with the Black Caps starting with an emphatic win over defending champions England, and going on to avoid the banana-skin upsets that afflicted the likes of South Africa and, again, England.

Since then, New Zealand have played well twice but lost twice, with India chasing down a target with two overs to spare, and Australia just edging an all-time classic in Dharamsala. The Black Caps remain in third place, just ahead of Australia on net run rate, and four points ahead of Sri Lanka in fifth. And yet they look the most likely of the top four to come under pressure for their semi-final place.

The major reason for this is the difficulty of their upcoming fixtures, with South Africa, Pakistan and Sri Lanka all in the top six as it stands. New Zealand are still firmly in control of their own destiny – three wins would definitely secure their passage, while two wins would likely be enough as well. But given the Proteas’ pyrotechnic form, it’s not impossible that New Zealand go into their game against Pakistan having lost three on the bounce, knowing that defeat will bring their opponents level on points with them.

Even then, if they do beat either of South Africa or Pakistan, the Sri Lanka game could be crucial. Despite an injury-hit campaign, Sri Lanka have impressed, and remain in reach of six wins. They have Afghanistan, India and Bangladesh to play. It’s plausible that the Sri Lanka and New Zealand game becomes a de facto quarter-final, even if Sri Lanka lose to India and beat the other two sides. On the other hand, should Afghanistan beat Sri Lanka, they will gear up for games against Netherlands, Australia and South Africa also in sight of six wins.

Australia are level with New Zealand on points, and so also can’t get complacent. However, their schedule is easier on paper, with games against the current bottom two to come. They play England next, and finish off against Afghanistan and Bangladesh.

India and South Africa have won five each, and so likely need just one more win to qualify for the semi-finals – though it is still mathematically possible for five teams to finish on six wins or more. India have England, Sri Lanka and Netherlands to come, while South Africa will face New Zealand and Afghanistan. The two sides will also play each other.

New Zealand fans will be comforted by the fact that, should they need to rely on Net Run Rate, theirs is healthy. Currently sitting at 1.232, their net run rate is only a shade of India’s, while all of those in the current bottom six of the table have negative net run rates. Of course, should New Zealand lose more than they win from here on out, their net run rate will dip, but big wins in their first four games, and ensuring their two defeats were close, means they are still well-placed to qualify for the knockouts.

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