Pakistan beat New Zealand yesterday (Saturday, November 6) to set up a thrilling final week in the World Cup semi-final race.

New Zealand posted a national-record total of 401-6, but Pakistan, led by a stellar century from Fakhar Zaman, raced to 200-1 in 25.3 overs to seal a DLS victory.

While victory kept Pakistan alive, they couldn’t pull off the margin required to overtake the Black Caps on Net Run Rate, meaning they may well need a sizeable win in their last group stage game, against England, to qualify for the semi-finals.

While it is possible for Pakistan to not have to rely on net run rate – if New Zealand lose to Sri Lanka and Afghanistan lose both their games – or for Pakistan to beat England and be eliminated on points – if Afghanistan beat Australia and South Africa – a likely scenario is that New Zealand beat Sri Lanka, meaning that Pakistan require a specific margin against England to qualify for the semi-finals.

What that margin will be exactly depends on New Zealand’s margin against Sri Lanka is, and also depends on the specific totals in the England game, but we can look at some examples. For example, if New Zealand make 300 and win by one run, or chase 300 off the last ball, their net run rate will be 0.353. If scoring 300 themselves, Pakistan would need to beat England by 130 runs to take their net run rate above that mark. Or, if chasing 300, they would need to reach victory inside 29 overs.

The bigger New Zealand’s margin, the bigger Pakistan’s margin will need to be, and these roughly match each other. Should New Zealand beat Sri Lanka by 50 runs defending 300, Pakistan would need to beat England by 167 runs – so with an extra 47 runs added on. If New Zealand chase 300 with 10 overs to spare, Pakistan would need to do so in 19.4 overs, so inside with an extra 9.1 overs added on.

So, if New Zealand beat Sri Lanka, Pakistan will need to win big against England, and the bigger the Black Caps can make the margin, the more Pakistan will need. It’s not out of the question, but Pakistan fans may find themselves saying “Qudrat Ka Nizam” a few more times between now and the end of the World Cup.

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