England suffered a devastating defeat to Afghanistan in their third match of the 2023 World Cup in Delhi. While it leaves their semi-final qualification hopes hanging in the balance, it hasn’t eliminated them.

Afghanistan pulled off one of the greatest upsets in men’s World Cup history to beat England, the first time they’ve done so in any form of international cricket. It was also their first win of the tournament, after they lost to Bangladesh and India, and England’s second defeat.

In the despair of losing another match they were expected to win in a World Cup, it’s worth remembering that England lost three matches on their way to victory in 2019 and two plus a no result in 1992 on their way to the final. All is not necessarily lost, but England’s margin for error in the rest of the tournament is now minimal.

Having played three matches, England now sit fifth in the table on two points, with an NRR of -0.08. Above them are India and New Zealand on six points and South Africa and Pakistan on four. Only South Africa, of the teams above them, have yet to play their third match.

However, apart from Afghanistan who are in sixth and Bangladesh in seventh, no team below them has yet played their third match. Sri Lanka, the Netherlands and Australia are all yet to register a win.

In the 2019 tournament, which was played in the same format, 12 points were enough to secure qualification for the semi-finals, while 11 and a good NRR were enough for New Zealand to take the fourth spot. With six further matches to play, England have a total of 12 points available to them – enough to take them to 14 points if they win all of their games, and mitigate for the washed-out matches that featured in 2019 but have so far not affected the current edition.

It’s still a tough ask. To reach the 12-point mark, England can only afford to lose one more match, and they still have both India and South Africa to play. They could be helped greatly by sides who were expected to challenge for the semi-finals falling away.

Australia were picked as one of the teams expected to be fighting for the knockouts before the tournament, but have underperformed in its opening stages. They have 14 points still available to them and also cannot afford another slip-up. They have, however, already played both India and South Africa. Their NRR is also currently the worst in the tournament at -1.8. If they continue to struggle and fall away as challengers for the knock-outs that would eliminate one potential rival for England to outscore.

While Afghanistan pulled off a brilliant win today, it’s hard to count them as realistic challengers for the semi-finals. The same can be said of Sri Lanka who, despite impressive performances with the bat, have already lost two matches. Their captain has also been ruled out of the rest of the tournament with injury. Bangladesh, whose only victory so far came over Afghanistan, and the Netherlands, can also be put in that category.

History for Afghanistan 🙌#ENGvAFG #CWC23 pic.twitter.com/VRORkBhiZE

— Wisden (@WisdenCricket) October 15, 2023

That would leave six teams vying for four semi-final slots, England one of them. Pakistan have a slightly worse NRR than England having registered a narrow victory over Sri Lanka and been well beaten by India. South Africa also have tricky games ahead of them, with India, Pakistan and New Zealand all on their radar.

The ten-team format of the tournament allows for the kind of slip-ups that England made today. In a four or five-team group-style tournament, these kinds of losses affect progression to the knockouts far more. However, England need to be note perfect and at their very best to qualify now, and they looked far from it today.

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