If England’s intention is not to peak too early, then their opening game of the 2023 World Cup could hardly have gone much better.

This was the deepest of troughs, plumbed on day one, and the only encouragement will be that, surely, England can only get better. They only have to look back to the first ODI of their recent series against New Zealand, a comprehensive eight-wicket defeat, for evidence of how they can bounce back, with a 3-1 win wrapped up a week later.

England may well attribute much of this to rust. There is little doubting the pedigree of Chris Woakes or Mark Wood or Adil Rashid with the ball, and they will improve as the tournament goes on. New Zealand provided batting of the highest quality. England’s, meanwhile, was indecisive, and too focussed on a pre-ordained plan. When Jonny Bairstow hit Trent Boult’s second ball for six, it felt like 2019 all over again. But thereafter, they refused to attack the Black Caps’ frontliners, and went hard against the part-timers, with questionable effect.

Harry Brook tried to turn 14 off three off Rachin Ravindra into 20 off four, looked to pull a ball not quite short enough into the stands, and holed out. Moeen Ali was promoted to No.5, again with the opposition in mind, and then fell as soon as New Zealand switched their match-up, going cross-batted against Glenn Phillips’ off-spin. Tom Latham reintroduced his strike bowlers at the right time to twist the knife. England were out-batted, out-bowled and out-thought. This was a good enough performance to put New Zealand at the forefront among World Cup contenders again, and that deserves to be remembered in the inquests.

England won’t panic, and they probably shouldn’t either. In a way, this was built into their plan. The Ashes and two T20 World Cups in two years has deprived them of ODI practice. The group stage was the chance to fine-tune their plans and figure out a best XI. Rest and rotate, manage the bowlers and get through to the last four, and hit the gas at the right time.

All of a sudden, every game looks a lot more crucial. Next up are Bangladesh and Afghanistan. On the one hand, these are opportunities to get back into the groove against two of the weaker sides in the competition. On the other, another defeat will leave them needing six wins from six, with their net run rate in tatters. If they do get through them, that’s when the real challenge starts, with South Africa, India and Australia all on the schedule in the space of two weeks.

England have at least been here before, when defeats to Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Australia left their 2019 campaign on a tightrope. They recommitted to their method in a bare-all team meeting, and surged to the trophy on the back of three sublime showings against the other members of the last four. The worry this time is that how England should correct is unclear. Do they need another frontline bowler, one of Reece Topley or Gus Atkinson perhaps, or, when Ben Stokes is back fit, do they back a batting heavy top six? Do they need to bat harder, forget who’s firing it down and send it back where it’s come from, or bat smarter, with a creakier batting line-up than four years ago?

England have been taught a lesson by New Zealand. But if they don’t learn quickly, their title defence will be over before its begun.

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