After any World Cup capitulation, the inevitable question of whether the captain should take the fall rears its head.

Jos Buttler is the latest to face that debate after England’s third loss out of four in the competition. The magnitude of their defeat to South Africa has hastened the appetite for that conversation before England have technically been knocked out. But with the possibility of their survival fast fading, attention instead turns to how to avoid similar feelings of disappointment, frustration and misery again in four years’ time.

Whatever Buttler’s future may be is something of a moot point right now, at least until the full scale of England’s disaster in India is confirmed. It will also depend on how he sees the final part of his career panning out, or whether the experience in India reshapes his vision for that. Of course, it’s not impossible that England go on a run, threaten the final four, and that Buttler chooses to lead them for another tilt in 2027. Whatever decisions from those at the centre in the next few months, it’s not implausible that, at some point in the not-too-distant future will be looking for a new fifty-over captain. At the moment, it’s hard to work out who the candidates could be.

Who they could potentially select depends on what route they go down more generally. The age of their core groups of players and the demands upon most of those playing all three formats suggests that there will be a complete clearance to begin the new cycle. With four years to engineer a squad capable of winning the biggest prize ODI cricket has to offer, they might as well use all the time they have, 2015-19 cycle style.

From their current crop of players, those likely to survive the cull by age and/or form are Harry Brook, Liam Livingstone, Sam Curran and Reece Topley – although the quantity of bubble wrap required to get Topley through four years of international cricket might prove too much for the suppliers to handle. There are several players in their mid-thirties who might be in the mix. Joe Root and Ben Stokes will be 36 in 2027, Buttler and Mark Wood will be 37, Chris Woakes and Jonny Bairstow will be 38, Adil Rashid will be 39. It’s highly unlikely that the majority will make it through, but also unlikely that none of them will. How England transition will be key to their fortunes.

Of those four younger names, the two England think of as having potential leadership qualities are Curran and Brook. After last year’s T20 World Cup, it might not have been a left-field suggestion to put Curran’s name forward as England’s next white-ball captain. But his stock has fallen rapidly in the three opening games of the ODI World Cup, and that possibility now seems remote.

Brook, on the other hand, could be a plausible candidate. Having enough talent to warrant overwhelming demand for a place in the World Cup squad with only a handful of 50-over appearances is a good start to being assured your place in the starting XI. The expected retirements of much of the rest of the batting lineup further cements his place. He’s captained England before at U19 level, and if England’s new mould of captains are going to be built in Stokes’ image rather than the well-drilled poker-faced diplomats they’ve been before, Brook fits the bill.

A first World Cup fifty for Harry Brook.

A massively important innings for his team.#CWC23 pic.twitter.com/STXbMgG10p

— Wisden (@WisdenCricket) October 15, 2023

However, at 24 and with only a year of international cricket under his belt, it’s a lot to ask. Brook has barely put a foot wrong so far, but when he inevitably does, there’s a responsibility to ensure the consequences don’t drown his limitless potential with the added layers of too many responsibilities too early.

Outside of the current squad, if England’s regeneration is immediate, then they will need a fresh crop of players to replace the outgoing ones. When none of the World Cup XV were available, Zak Crawley was tasked with captaining the next set of players. That seems a reasonable indication of where the thinking is at, in terms of succession planning. Crawley has all the hallmarks of a natural ODI top-order batter, arguably more naturally suited to that format than Tests. There’s the ever-present caveat of limited leadership experience, but four years of low-stakes bilateral series to hone his leadership skills seems like a good training ground.

Quite frankly, with the scale of player turnover England are likely to have, finding a new captain sure of their place, with experience and proven success, looks like an impossible task. So, traditional logic states they should turn to the person they look to whenever they face a crisis on field or off it.

Of England’s senior ODI statesmen, Stokes is on the younger side. By the 2027 tournament, he will be 36 – the same age as Moeen Ali and Rohit Sharma both are now. After England’s defeat against Afghanistan, it was Stokes who took control of trying to lift the team out of the depths. After missing the first three matches, his presence in the squad has arguably been felt more by his absence from the starting XI. The number of times the camera panned to him on the sidelines while the on-field team struggled left watchers in no doubt of the identity of their most important player.

Stokes was officially retired from the format less than two months ago. He’s already detailed the stresses of playing all three formats, and it seems unlikely he’d want to captain all three. But the regeneration his Test captaincy has instilled in both his side and himself is plain to see. His body continues to let him down, but with ODI bilateral series’ becoming less and less frequent and a more recent T20I medal in his cabinet, there could be an appeal to planting his flag in the ground for four more years.

Whoever Buttler hands the armband on to, whenever he gives it up, will be an imperfect successor. Buttler himself still sits in the gargantuan shadow of Eoin Morgan. The next in line will have to find their version of England’s next white-ball era, and make the second reset in a decade a success.

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