The 2023 World Cup could be the best ever despite the fraught format and scheduling woes

The Covid-19 pandemic has had effects far more profound than the impact it has had on cricket. Nonetheless, the sport has been altered and stretched in the intervening time. Schedules have been squeezed and finances compressed, leading to a franchise explosion, sometimes at the explicit expense of ODI cricket. A Test game on life support has been given repeated doses of Bazball defibrillation, and two T20 World Cups have led to a further sidelining of cricket’s middle format. Something’s got to give, and generally, with a resigned shrug, it’s ODI cricket that is designated as the one to go.

As the tournament approaches, the questions increase. A schedule arrived just over two months out from the opening game, and then was changed not long after. Pakistan have threatened to pull out, but will now travel under protest. Australia’s boycott of Afghanistan will be tested. The bigger context looms large.

This World Cup will also mark the end of something of a lost decade, a second ten-team event in a row as the game globalises elsewhere. Where could Scotland be now with four months on the biggest of stages supercharging their rises? What of Ireland, who giantkilled their way to Full Member status, and will go 12 years between appearances? And given Test cricket is the ultimate goal, and T20 cricket is the democratising force, will newer teams have the will to make a go of it in 50-over cricket?

The 2023 World Cup, therefore, arrives at an inflection point. And yet, for all that the format’s future is prophesied to be bleak, the ODI World Cup is still the biggest prize in the sport, and this year’s event, with subcontinental venues acting as a leveller, could be the best yet.

Hosts India are pound-for-pound favourites, but not by a runaway margin. For Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli, this could be the last chance for each to claim a second world title, and the elder statesmen will be joined in the top three by the regal pretender, Shubman Gill.

Further down, however, there are issues. There’s the neverending No.4 conundrum, Jasprit Bumrah’s return is still nascent, and there is a general lack of variety among the bowlers: most sides have a left-arm quick and a leg-spinner, but India have neither. If they are to win, it will be an old-school triumph, based on top-order runs, right-arm seam, and constricting finger-spin, with Kuldeep Yadav as the wildcard.

Who can challenge them? England are defending champions, and their squad has a similar look to the 2019 cohort. Only Eoin Morgan and Liam Plunkett from that Lord’s XI are guaranteed to miss out, and even Harry Brook, the best young batter in the world, can’t find a spot.

But while the names are the same, the situations differ. Jason Roy is no longer the swaggering talisman but the next head on the chopping block. Jonny Bairstow, Joe Root and Ben Stokes have all gone a year without an ODI due to injury, Test duties and retirement, respectively. Moeen Ali, dropped partway through last time, will be vital, in the engine room with the bat as well as with the ball. And can Chris Woakes and Mark Wood reprise their fast-bowling mastery in less helpful conditions?

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In Jos Buttler and Adil Rashid – whose shoulder is no longer the issue it was in 2019 – they have two titans at their best. Liam Livingstone and Sam Curran are the bits-n-pieces millionaires to round out the XI. They are still good, but will they be good enough?

Beyond those two, Pakistan emerge as serious contenders. If 2019 was the 1992-redux rollercoaster, now they are coasting. They have a contrasting, consistent opening pair in Imam-ul-Haq and Fakhar Zaman, a genuine great at No.3 in Babar Azam, and the perfect deputy at No.4 in Mohammad Rizwan. A pace attack of Shaheen Shah Afridi, Naseem Shah and Haris Rauf will be among the best in the tournament, and none comes close for box-office value.

The middle order is less certain, but only because of competition for places, and all the bases are covered: if they want all-rounders, they have a choice of spin and seam, and they have specialist options too; and leg-spinner Shadab Khan is the livewire to tie it all up.

The question is whether Babar, inscrutable and enigmatic, can hold the whole thing together, amid the pressures of a World Cup on hostile soil. In Pakistan cricket, nothing can ever be too good for too long. The prospect of an India-Pakistan final in front of 100,000 at the Narendra Modi stadium is almost too tantalising to bear.

Naturally, tournament experts New Zealand and Australia will be in amongst it, while South Africa will no doubt add a new chapter of World Cup heartbreak. Bangladesh glided through the Super League, but an injury to Tamim Iqbal and some untimely home defeats have lumped the captaincy and the pressure onto Shakib Al Hasan. Imperious in 2019, he is another great who may not return for another tilt at the grand prize.

For Sri Lanka, the big ask will be of the spin pair. Maheesh Theekshana and Wanindu Hasaranga have torn up cricket’s second tier, but need to show they can have the same economy and incision against the world’s best. Afghanistan might not have the batting depth to challenge for the top four, but they have found an opening pair worthy of the name, and a pedigree quick in Fazalhaq Farooqi. They are now more than their spinners, and they will have a say in how the tournament unfolds. Netherlands round out the ten, and their story is already a proud one. Their last World Cup appearance, in 2022, saw them decide the semi-final race. They will find a way to leave their mark.

This is a tournament that arrives as a liferaft for a fraught format, facing numerous issues, both logistical and political, in its staging, and that, by some measures, barely deserves the ‘World Cup’ label. It also has the ingredients to be one of the most compelling cricket events ever staged. Right now, the sport needs it to be so.