Afghanistan need to chase down 292 in 37.1 overs against Sri Lanka in a do-or-die league game to edge out the island team on net run rate and make it into the Super Four of the 2023 Asia Cup.

The Dasun Shanaka-led side were placed in Group A, along with Bangladesh and Afghanistan in the tournament. They started their campaign on a high, defeating Bangladesh by five wickets after bowling the Tigers out for 164. They chased down the target in 39 overs to end with a net run rate of +0.951.

Ahead of their game with Afghanistan on Tuesday, Sri Lanka topped the group and were the favourites to make it through into the second round. Bangladesh, who defeated Afghanistan, also have two points with a NRR of +0.373. But despite an inferior NRR, Bangladesh have already qualified for the Super Four as one of the two teams from the group and only one among Sri Lanka and Afghanistan can join them. If Afghanistan’s net run rate overtakes Bangladesh’s, then Sri Lanka’s net run rate will dip below Bangladesh’s.

Sri Lanka are playing Afghanistan in the last Group A game on Tuesday, but despite a strong start to the edition and a formidable NRR, they could miss out on making the Super Four if they do not defend 292 in 37.2 overs.

How could Sri Lanka miss out and Afghanistan qualify?

The scenario hinges on Afghanistan’s total. First, let’s assume they clear Sri Lanka’s total by one run. Sri Lanka ended with 291 runs in their 50 overs. If Afghanistan make 292, they need to overhaul the target in 37.1 overs if they want to better Sri Lanka’s NRR. If Afghanistan go on to win the clash but chase the target in more than 37.1 overs, they will end with the worst NRR among the three teams and will miss out on the second round.

If Sri Lanka allow Afghanistan to chase down 292 runs in 37.1 overs, their NRR will fall to -0.108. If Afghanistan get the target within the stipulated overs, their NRR will rise from the current -1.780 to -0.089. In that scenario, they will have a healthier NRR than Sri Lanka, and will make it through as the second-best team.

On the other hand, if Afghanistan go on to win the game, but chase the target in more than 37.1 overs, Sri Lanka will be the team that makes it into the Super Four courtesy of a better NRR.

However, if Afghanistan finish the game with a six with the scores tied, they give themselves more time. If Afghanistan make 297, they have until 38.1 overs to chase down Sri Lanka’s target. In this case however, if the scores are tied after 37.2 overs or beyond, a wide or no ball from Sri Lanka would see them progress to the Super Fours, putting Afghanistan’s total at 292.