Australia may still lead the series going into the fourth Ashes Test at Old Trafford, but after England’s victory at Headingley momentum is against them for the first time.

So far, all of Australia’s problems have been masked by the series scoreline. It didn’t matter as such that David Warner was continuing in his struggles against Stuart Broad or Marnus Labuschagne’s overseas record was looking comparatively patchier by the innings. Their polish and steel held out against England’s fire to put them within a Test of retaining the urn.

The loss at Headingley brings their issues into sharper focus. Above selection dilemmas, they need to find solutions to keeping control when England counter-attack. In both of their innings in the third Test, England were on the brink of capitulation only for a half-hour blitz to keep them above water. While they still need just one win for their fist series victory in England for two decades, Australia must find workable solutions to keep control of the series.

What to do about Warner?

There is a painful familiarity to Warner’s struggles against Stuart Broad. But even the entertainment of seeing the crowd get a short burst of their favourite pantomime battle is starting to ware thin. What lies beneath is a simple equation. Warner has rarely looked comfortable opening in England. Not only that, he now seems in a rut of form that looks permanent, with his Test career set to end in a few months time regardless of whether he manufactures a turn in form. To drop him now would be ruthless, but the Ashes are now at a crunch point. It’s a decision that should be at least making the selection discussions.

The options they have to replace him are limited. Marcus Harris is in their squad but four single digit scores from six innings in the 2019 Ashes series highlight his own issues against the moving ball. Realistically, they will have to promote a non-specialist opener, with another middle-order batter coming in lower down. The most realistic incumbent who could partner Usman Khawaja is Labuschagne, but his own series record counts against that plan. Travis Head would be the next best option. He’s batted in every position from one to six for Australia in Tests and would counter England’s own aggressive opening pair. That would also be a way for Australia to include both Cam Green and Mitchell Marsh in the same side.

Can Mitchell Marsh play in the same XI as Cam Green?

Assuming Australia stick with Warner, their next most pressing issue is how to fit two all-rounders in the same team if Green recovers in time for Old Trafford. They could alway stick to the original plan and drop Marsh again but after his performance at Headingley that’s unlikely. Their other options are to go in without a spinner, or drop another under-performing batter. Todd Murphy was used sparingly at Headingley; they could instead rely on their part-time spin options for a bit of turn. There’s still the least complicated possibility, that Marsh’s form means he’s now the incumbent with Green waiting in the wings until his returns to drop.

Todd Murphy

Murphy was given the full ‘welcome to the Ashes’ treatment by Ben Stokes at Headingley. The narrow margin of victory makes those five sixes in less than three overs significant. More than that, Pat Cummins looked reluctant to use him in England’s second innings when the runs counted even more. Losing a pillar like Nathan Lyon is bound to cause a re-evaluation from a captain faced with an inexperienced main spinner, but Cummins needs to find a way to trust Murphy if he is to be in the side.

It should be remembered that Murphy had Stokes dropped twice consecutively during that onslaught. Whether Australia are able to get the best out of him will be significant.

Negotiating the needle

Tensions have been escalating from an already high temperature since the first day of this series. However, Headingley was the first time Australia looked like it was getting to them. Steve Smith bit back at a tame comment from Jonny Bairstow on getting out, breaking his usually impenetrable aura. Their response to the Alex Carey-haircut allegation seemed slightly over the top and reactionary for something that was so easily cleared up. Needle is part of Ashes series, always has been, always will be, and by the standards of pervious touring sides, there’s little to get among this Australia team. Being one up with two to play is significant, the nine-day break should allow a break from the noise for Australia to remember that.

Keeping control

In the first two Tests, Australia found a way to wrestle back control of the game from England for long enough to secure wins. At Headingley the opposite was true. Mark Wood, Ben Stokes and Harry Brook all managed upset Australia’s plans to the point where they looked ragged. At Lord’s, a committee meeting in the middle kept calm among the troops long enough to hold out for the inevitable mistake. That didn’t happen at Headingley. England will rely on individual acts of odds-defying brilliance to win the next two games, in part because as a unit Australia are better than them. Maintaining clarity and faith in their calibre even when chaos is erupting around them got them to a lead in this series, and it’s also how they will win it.

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