Australia face an uphill battle to win the 2023 Ashes series outright – and if they fail to do so, they won’t get another chance in a big overseas Test rubber for a long time.

Pat Cummins’ side are the No.1 ranked team in the world and the World Test Championship holders, but their lack of overseas wins is a hole in their record. Since Cummins returned to the side in 2017, they have won just one Test series outside Australia, against Pakistan in early 2022. To add to this, their home record is far from spotless, with two home series defeats against India that time, and a home reversal to South Africa coming just before.

Australia’s lack of away triumphs is partly down to the Covid-19 pandemic reducing their schedule, with tours to South Africa and Bangladesh cancelled in that time – though they failed to beat both of those teams on their last respective tours to the countries. They had looked set to correct that gap when they took a 2-0 lead against England, but the hosts have since won the third Test, dominated a rain-soaked draw in the fourth, and put themselves on top at the Kia Oval.

Should Ben Stokes’ side complete a series-levelling victory, it could be seen as a last chance gone begging for a proper statement result for Cummins’ side, which is an aging one. Usman Khawaja is 36 years old, as is David Warner, who has already set his retirement date for early next year. Steve Smith is 34. On the bowling side, while Cummins (30) has time on his side, Nathan Lyon is 35, Mitchell Starc is 33 and Josh Hazlewood is 32.

After playing 10 Tests on the road this year – four in India, and six in England, including the World Test Championship final – Australia’s schedule dries up following the Ashes. They play just six away Tests in the next three years following this summer – two in New Zealand at the start of 2024, two in Sri Lanka at the start of 2025, and two in West Indies later that year. After that, their next away Test tour is in South Africa in September 2026.

Australia’s side is an excellent one, with several players who can lay claim to ‘great’ status. But should they fall to defeat at the Kia Oval, any evaluation of them as a team should come with a significant caveat.

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