A 2-0 sweep in Bangladesh put South Africa ahead of Australia and India in the race for a berth in the 2023-25 World Test Championship final.
South Africa followed a seven-wicket win at Mirpur with an even larger one at Chattogram, by an innings and 273 runs. This was their first series win in Bangladesh since 2007-08, and the first by any “SENA” team in the country since England in 2009-10. With a PCT of 54.17, South Africa are now fourth on the league table, after India (62.82), Australia (62.50), and Sri Lanka (55.56).
| Team | Matches | Won | Lost | Drawn | Points deducted | Points | PCT |
| India | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 98 | 62.82 |
| Australia | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 90 | 62.50 |
| Sri Lanka | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 60 | 55.56 |
| South Africa | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 52 | 54.17 |
| New Zealand | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 60 | 50.00 |
| England | 19 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 19 | 93 | 40.79 |
| Pakistan | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 40 | 33.33 |
| Bangladesh | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 33 | 27.50 |
| West Indies | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 18.52 |
Since South Africa have played fewer Tests (8) than India (13) and Australia (12), their PCT is more sensitive than the top two. In other words, a win will help their PCT increase at a quicker rate than it will for India or Australia – and even slightly quicker than Sri Lanka.
South Africa’s remaining Test matches
v Sri Lanka: 2 at home (November 27-December 1 and December 5-9, 2024)
v Pakistan: 2 at home (December 26-30, 2024 and January 3-7, 2025)
What do South Africa need to do for a final berth?
If South Africa win all four Test matches, they will attain a PCT of 69.44 and cruise into the final. But what if they win three out of four? In that case, they will reach 61.11 – still very good but not as invincible.
To make things as difficult as possible for South Africa, let us give India a win in the Mumbai Test match against New Zealand and Australia the series in Sri Lanka 2-0. That will take India to 65.48 and Australia to 67.86 – but we still have the five-match Border-Gavaskar Trophy to contend with.
If India win that series 3-2, they will rise to 64.04 but Australia will drop to 60.53. If Australia win 3-2, they will finish with 65.79 and India with 58.77. A 2-2 draw will keep Australia to 62.28 and India to 60.53. If either side wins the series by larger margins, the lower-placed of the side will finish further away from South Africa.
Thus, even if South Africa win three of their remaining four Tests, they are guaranteed to finish above at least one of India and Australia. However, that will not guarantee them a berth in the final.
What are the stumbling blocks for South Africa?
We have given the Mumbai Test to India before. However, if New Zealand win that Test and sweep England 3-0 at home, they will soar to 64.29. As we have seen, all Australia need to finish above South Africa (61.11) is a 2-2 draw against India (or better). Even India can make it with a 3-0 win (or better).
Sri Lanka are in the game as well if they win three of their remaining four Tests. These include two against Australia at home: let us give them that 2-0. The other two are in South Africa: since we have given South Africa three wins, that series has to finish 1-1 for the equation.
That will leave New Zealand at 64.29, Sri Lanka at 61.54, and South Africa at 61.11.
In other words, three wins in four home Tests will help South Africa finish above at least one of Australia and India – but not guarantee them a berth in the final. Even then, they are placed better than India and Australia, and if they do win their three Tests, not qualifying will be a mere mathematical possibility.
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