With only four matches remaining in the league phase of the Championship, the race for qualification is going down to the wire. The result of the third Test of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy has faltered India’s progress towards confirming their spot at The Oval in June, with the result of the final Test in Ahmedabad now crucial.

All eyes will be on Sri Lanka when they start their two-match series against New Zealand next week, a 2-0 victory potentially enough to unseat India’s position in the table.

Reminder: Teams are not ranked in the table by their number of wins. Their final positions are decided by the percentage of points they have won from all of the matches they have contested (PCT).

WTC final: What do India and Sri Lanka need to qualify?

India

If India win the fourth Test (starts next week), they will secure their place in the final. They currently sit in second place with a PCT total of 60.29. If they win the final Test in Ahmedabad, their PCT total will be 62.50 – unassailable for Sri Lanka, regardless of the result in New Zealand.

If India fail to win in Ahmedabad, they could still qualify for the final. But, they will have to rely on New Zealand beating Sri Lanka in at least one of their two Test matches.

India v Australia possible PCT tallies

India 2-1 Australia – India 58.80, Australia 66.67
India 2-2 Australia – India 56.94, Australia 70.18

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka will need to whitewash New Zealand to stand any chance of making a trip to The Oval in June. They currently have a PCT total of 53.33 and will need to finish on a minimum of 56.95 to displace India. This is only achievable if they win both of their matches in New Zealand.

However, this also does not include any penalties for over rates that India could receive – although unlikely with spinners set to feature heavily in Ahmedabad.

In short, only a perfect set of results for Sri Lanka – two wins against New Zealand and good luck in Australia’s final Test in India – will see them pull off a memorable heist to qualify for their first World Test Championship final.

New Zealand v Sri Lanka possible PCT tallies

New Zealand 2-0 Sri Lanka – New Zealand 38.46, Sri Lanka 44.44
New Zealand 1-0 Sri Lanka – New Zealand 33.33, Sri Lanka 47.22
New Zealand 1-1 Sri Lanka – New Zealand 30.77, Sri Lanka 52.78
New Zealand 0-0 Sri Lanka – New Zealand 28.21, Sri Lanka 50.00
New Zealand 0-1 Sri Lanka – New Zealand 25.64, Sri Lanka 55.56
New Zealand 0-2 Sri Lanka – New Zealand 23.08, Sri Lanka 61.11