Nearly half-way through the current edition of the World Test Championship, here is how things stand in the race to the final of the 2023-2025 WTC for each team.
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Sri Lanka are set to face Bangladesh for a two-Test series starting March 22, following which there will be a nearly three-and-a-half month break from Test cricket, marking the one year point of the 2023-2025 WTC cycle.
As things stand now, after the completion of two high-profile series between India and England, and New Zealand and Australia, India are at the top of the table while Sri Lanka are at the bottom. No team, however, is out of contention for a final berth yet.
To refresh your memory regarding the format of the WTC, teams are ranked based on the overall percentage of available points (PCT) they have won. Twelve points are up for grabs in each Test match. The winning team gets all 12, the losing team gets none, a draw results in both teams sharing four points each, while a tied game results in six points shared among the two teams. Points can also be deducted due to slow over rates.
Here is where each team stands in the race to the 2025 WTC final.
Who needs what to reach the 2023-2025 WTC final
India
Current PCT: 68.51
Maximum PCT: 85.08
Series remaining: vs BAN (two Tests at home), vs NZ (three Tests at home), vs AUS (five Tests away)
India are sitting pretty at the top half-way through their campaign. They have two relatively easier home series coming up against Bangladesh and New Zealand, followed by a much tougher challenge of five games in Australia.
If they win all their remaining ten games, India will be guaranteed to reach the final. If they win all five of their home games and lose 0-5 against Australia, they’ll finish with a PCT of 58.77. There is a good chance that even that might be enough for India to qualify for the final, with Australia for company just like the previous edition.
Australia
Current PCT: 62.50
Maximum PCT: 76.31
Series remaining: vs IND (five Tests at home), vs SL (two Tests away)
Australia have climbed up to the second spot after their whitewash over New Zealand. With only two series left, both challenging ones, the maximum PCT Australia can reach is 76.31. From their seven remaining games, Australia need to win at least four to end up with a PCT above 60, which has previously been the magic number teams need to reach to be in with a good chance of final qualification. In the last edition, India qualified for the final with a PCT of 58.8, which makes 60 a decently safe estimate.
If, however, they are pushed at home by India (like they have been on the last two occasions), and they don’t manage to win more than two games in the five-match series, they will be under extreme pressure to deliver a whitewash in Sri Lanka, where they drew 1-1 last time they travelled there.
New Zealand
Current PCT: 50
Maximum PCT: 78.57
Series remaining: vs ENG (three Tests at home), vs SL (two Tests away), vs IND (three Tests away)
New Zealand were at the top of the WTC table earlier in the cycle, but have now slipped to third. They have two tough away tours of India and Sri Lanka coming up along with a home series against England which won’t be easy either.
If New Zealand fluff their chances in the subcontinent later this year and lose all five of their games in Sri Lanka and India combined, even a 3-0 whitewash of England at home will only take their PCT to 42.85, which will be nowhere near enough to qualify for the final. Assuming they will beat England 3-0, for them to get close to the magic number of 60 PCT, New Zealand will have to win at least two out of the five away games (57.14 PCT) and ideally three (64.28 PCT), which will be a tough ask.
Bangladesh
Current PCT: 50
Maximum PCT: 91.66
Series remaining: vs SL (two Tests at home), vs SA (two Tests at home), vs IND (two Tests away), vs PAK (two Tests away), vs WI (two Tests away)
Bangladesh have the highest ceiling in terms of how high their PCT can reach among all teams. They have five series remaining – two at home and three away. So far they have only won six away Tests in their entire history, four of which have been in the West Indies and two in Zimbabwe.
Their home series against Sri Lanka and South Africa will give them a good opportunity to get points under their belt. If they win all four of their home Tests, Bangladesh will need at least two more victories out of their six away games to get close to 60 PCT. Their next two opponents are Sri Lanka (home) and Pakistan (away). If Bangladesh are to fancy their chances for the WTC final, they need to get as many victories out of these next four games as possible.
Pakistan
Current PCT: 36.66
Maximum PCT: 77.38
Series remaining: vs BAN (two Tests at home), vs ENG (three Tests at home), vs WI (two Tests at home), vs SA (two Tests away)
Pakistan are currently fifth in the table. Fortunately for them, seven of their remaining nine games in this cycle are going to be at home. But unfortunately for them, they haven’t really been as dominant in their own backyard as teams are expected to be.
Six wins out of their remaining nine will get them up to 55.9 PCT, leaving them at the mercy of other results going their way. But getting six wins at this stage looks like a challenge in itself for Pakistan. Even if they whitewash Bangladesh and West Indies at home, they’ll have to get two wins out of three games against England (at home) and two games against South Africa (away) combined, which looks like an uphill task.
West Indies
Current PCT: 33.33
Maximum PCT: 79.48
Series remaining: vs BAN (two Tests at home), vs SA (two Tests at home), vs ENG (three Tests away), vs PAK (two Tests away)
West Indies did themselves a huge favour by winning a game against Australia at the Gabba. It showed that they have it in them to challenge and beat the best of teams away from home, something they will be required to do if they are aim for the WTC final.
WI need at least six wins out of their nine remaining games (56.4 PCT) to stand a chance to challenge the top two spots. In the best case scenario that they win their four games at home (two against Bangladesh and two against South Africa), they will still need to manufacture at least two wins out of five in England and Pakistan. They have not won a Test in Pakistan since 1990 and have won only two in England in the last 20 years.
South Africa
Current PCT: 25
Maximum PCT: 75
Series remaining: vs PAK (two Tests at home), vs SL (two Tests at home), vs BAN (two Tests away), vs WI (two Tests away)
South Africa currently have the second-lowest ceiling in terms of the maximum PCT they can reach. Luckily for them, they don’t have the toughest set of fixtures going ahead. Their two home series are against Asian teams and their two away tours are against Bangladesh and West Indies.
If South Africa are able to conjure up six wins out of eight, dropping a game each in Bangladesh and West Indies for assumption, they’ll finish with 58.33 PCT, which will take them real close to the top two. However, since their fixtures don’t directly affect Australia or India, the top sides currently, they might have to push harder and get seven wins out of eight to stand a chance to qualify for the final.
England
Current PCT: 17.50
Maximum PCT: 62.50
Series remaining: vs SL (three Tests at home), vs WI (three Tests at home), vs NZ (three Tests away), vs PAK (three Tests away)
England are by far the worst placed team in the tournament at the moment. While they are still not completely out of the race, they need to win all of their remaining 12 games to reach the 60 PCT mark. If they lose even one out of 12, they will only finish with 57.9 PCT, which might not be enough. Two games dropped out of 12, and they will be most certainly be out of the competition.
Sri Lanka
Current PCT: 0
Maximum PCT: 84.61
Series remaining: vs AUS (two Tests at home), vs NZ (two Tests at home), vs BAN (two Tests away), vs ENG (three Tests away), vs SA (two Tests away)
Sri Lanka are yet to open their account in the 2023-2025 WTC. They have a relatively tough set of fixtures, with Australia to face at home and England and South Africa to face away among other series.
They did themselves no favours by losing 0-2 to Pakistan at home last year and will have to make the most of their four home Tests against Australia and New Zealand. If they win all four, Sri Lanka will then need at least four more victories from their seven away games to breach the 60 PCT barrier, which will be a humongous task.
