Sri Lanka’s recent Test wins against England and New Zealand have propelled them to the No.3 spot in the WTC points table. They have won four of their eight matches thus far, registering a Points Percentage (PCT) of 50%. Sri Lanka have also lost four matches in the ongoing cycle and are only behind India (PCT of 71.67%) and Australia (62.50%) in the standings.

Can Sri Lanka qualify for the 2025 WTC final?

What are Sri Lanka's upcoming series?

Sri Lanka have one Test to be played against New Zealand at Galle, beginning later this week. The hosts won the first match by 63 runs and will be the favourites to clinch the series.

Sri Lanka will then have four Tests remaining, against relatively stronger opposition. They will first tour South Africa for a two-match Test series later this year. Sri Lanka will then host Australia for two Tests, leaving them to play five more matches in the World Test Championship.

Sri Lanka will contest a total of 156 points (13 Tests) in this Championship, with each win carrying 12 points. If they manage to win their remaining five Tests, they will have a PCT of 69.23%, which will be enough to take them through to the final, with Australia’s position on the table falling if they lose 0-2 to them next year.

However, realistically, that is a tall task. South Africa have also been a tough country to tour, especially for Asian teams, with only one side from the continent (Sri Lanka themselves, in 2019) winning a series. Sri Lanka have visited the country once more since the win, in 2021, but went down 0-2.

The series against Australia will not be the easiest either. Australia, the defending WTC champions, are currently the top Test side in the world. Since the start of 2023, they have won 10 of their 18 games, with a win/loss ratio of 2.0, the second-best in this period after India (2.25). Though Sri Lanka won a Test against Australia the last time they toured them, in 2022, repeating the feat can be a challenge.

India and Australia, the top two sides in the WTC table, will also play a five-match Test series later this year, and those results will widely affect the qualification chances of the other teams in the fray.

For Sri Lanka, winning four of their remaining five games will give them a PCT of 61.58%, which could also see them sneak through if different results go their way. Anything lesser, however, could see their chances end.

Even if Sri Lanka win three more matches (and lose the other two), they will end with a PCT of 53.85%, which will be inadequate. No team in the last two cycles has qualified with a PCT percentage of less than 55.

For now though, Sri Lanka's chances are firmly in their own hands.

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