India’s stunning yet comfortable win at Kanpur helped them rout Bangladesh 2-0. They have a comfortable lead at the top of the WTC 2023-25 points table, but have they qualified?
The 2-0 win against Bangladesh took India to 98 points and a PCT of 74.24. They are ahead of second-placed Australia by the proverbial mile (90 and 62.5).
India’s remaining matches at WTC 2023-25:
Against New Zealand at home: 3 Tests
Against Australia in Australia: 5 Tests
Also read: Updated World Test Championship standings after India's 2-0 sweep over Bangladesh
Have India qualified already?
Not quite. They will not qualify even if they sweep New Zealand 3-0 and reach a PCT of 79.76. A 4-1 defeat in Australia will bring India down to 64.04 and take Australia to 67.65. If Australia then draw 1-1 in Sri Lanka, they will still remain on 65.79 – above India.
If South Africa win their remaining six Tests – two in Bangladesh and two against each of Pakistan and Sri Lanka at home – they will reach 69.44. However, anything less (even five wins and a draw) will keep South Africa to 63.89 – below India.
Interestingly, if India lose a Test against New Zealand (and lose 1-4 in Australia), they will drop to 58.77. Even if New Zealand save a Test against India, the hosts will be stuck on 60.53.
In that case, if Sri Lanka draw 1-1 in South Africa and beat Australia 2-0, they will finish on 61.54, South Africa on 61.11, and both India and Australia on 60.53. A Sri Lanka-South Africa final, thus, is still on the cards.
What are the odds of India not qualifying?
Mathematically, India have not qualified yet, but they should make it. They have won their last two series in Australia by 2-1 margins. If India do win two Tests this time as well, they will reach 65.79 even if they lose the other three and New Zealand save a Test against them.
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