The race to the World Test Championship 2023-25 final is set for an exciting conclusion – and ten Tests over the next month or so will go a long way towards determining who makes it.
Next year's final will be held at Lord's in June, and the top two sides at the moment are Australia and India, the same two that contested the final in 2023. The next three teams in the rankings – Sri Lanka, New Zealand and South Africa – are also in the hunt for a spot.
The end of this cycle will be in February 2025, but this stretch from the end of November to the start of January will go a long way towards determining which sides become favourites.
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All of the top five will be in action, but two series in particular stand out, with four of the five in action against another member of the group: Australia v India and South Africa v Sri Lanka. These series will tip the scales one way or another for these sides.
Australia-India is a five-Test series, and South Africa-Sri Lanka a two-Test series. The fifth team in the race, New Zealand, will take on sixth-placed England (who are realistically not in the race) in a three-Test series at home.
How can each side put themselves in the best possible position at the end of this run of fixtures?
Australia
With a points percentage of 62.5 so far, Australia are on top of the table. They have not beaten India in a Test series for ten years, but the early indications are that this will be their best chance to change that.
Their fate remains in their own hands, and they can ensure that they are among the top two at the end of this run, although this could be a tricky ask.
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If Australia beat India by a margin of 4-1 or better, they will be in the top two by the end of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy, no matter what New Zealand, South Africa or Sri Lanka do.
A 4-1 BGT win would also put them in a strong position to make the final. In that case, they would fail to make the final only if both Sri Lanka and New Zealand win all their Tests (or, at worst, Sri Lanka draw one).
A 3-2 BGT win would make things far more unstable for Australia. They would then need to win at least one Test in Sri Lanka, and hope Sri Lanka can take a Test off South Africa before that. It's not disastrous by any means, but especially at home, they would do well to push for a 4-1 victory at least.
India
The 3-0 home loss to New Zealand has dented India's hopes of making the final. They are still second in the table, but now need much more against Australia than they would have anticipated earlier.
This is also India's last series of the cycle, meaning it is their last chance to control anything that happens in the standings. A 4-0 win or better will help them secure a place in the final, irrespective of any other results (including the Australia-Sri Lanka series in January). However, if they lose even once to Australia, they will need other results to go their way.
India need to win at least four Tests in Australia to remain in the top two by the end of these ten fixtures – even 4-1 will do for that. That is no guarantee of anything, as they can be knocked out later on if New Zealand and Sri Lanka win all of their remaining fixtures.
A menacing short ball from Josh Hazlewood outclassed Virat Kohli in Perth.
— Wisden (@WisdenCricket) November 22, 2024
Watch his dismissal here ➡️ https://t.co/t7CwzAi3hB pic.twitter.com/BuKuRQ0vdd
Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka face perhaps their toughest assignment now with a tour to South Africa, although they can take heart in the fact that they won 2-0 there in 2019.
If they manage to repeat that feat, Sri Lanka can make the top two by the end of the three relevant series if New Zealand beat England 3-0 and the Border-Gavaskar Trophy goes 3-2 to either side. They can also make it there if New Zealand lose one Test, and the BGT is 4-1 to either side.
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If Sri Lanka draw 1-1 with South Africa, they can remain in the top two temporarily if India beat Australia 4-1 and England beat New Zealand 2-1. These scenarios look unlikely, though.
There is no rush for Sri Lanka to get on top right now, though. If they can take a 1-1 result from South Africa back home, they might well fancy their chances of whitewashing Australia. In such a case, they would finally be knocked out of the top two only if New Zealand whitewash England, and Australia do not lose a single Test to India.
New Zealand
New Zealand were not truly in the race for the final, until their stunning whitewash of India in India. The upcoming series against England is their last of the cycle.
Mathematically, their fate is not in their own hands. Even if they beat England 3-0, they can fail to make the final if Australia beat India 5-0, and Sri Lanka defeat both South Africa and Australia 2-0. However, this is a relatively unlikely scenario. Effectively, if New Zealand whitewash England they stand an excellent chance of making the final.
Things start to get more complicated if they lose one Test to England, though. In that case, they need the Border-Gavaskar Trophy to finish 3-2 to Australia (no more or no less) to have a decent chance of qualifying, which could still be alongside any one of Australia, Sri Lanka and South Africa.
Here, if South Africa-Sri Lanka finishes 1-1, it further jeopardises New Zealand's chances by giving both teams a chance to overtake the Kiwis.
In addition, Australia winning the BGT 4-1 in this case puts New Zealand out of the final, if there are no draws in the further relevant series. The equation is simple for the Kiwis: Beat England 3-0.
South Africa
South Africa's whitewash of Bangladesh last time out has put them in a fantastic position to make the final of the WTC. They have two remaining series, both at home against Sri Lanka and Pakistan.
The Proteas will fancy their chances of winning all four Tests. Doing so would give them a points percentage of 69.44, which can only be overtaken by Australia. Therefore, their fate is still in their hands. Win all four, and they will be second at worst. This will secure them a place in the final.
Even one loss among these four (say, the series against Sri Lanka ends 1-1), though, and South Africa will need some help. In such a case, they would need England to beat New Zealand once, or Australia to beat Sri Lanka once.
Just like New Zealand, South Africa's equation is simple, though not as shaky. If they can get through Sri Lanka unscathed, they will no doubt be one of the favourites to make it to the final.
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