With the help of statistical analysis, Ben Gardner explains why it’s unlikely that the talented, versatile Jonny Bairstow is the long-term solution for England at first drop.

England’s approach to solving their vexing No.3 problem – cycling through candidates at an ever-increasing rate until one of them scores a hundred – might seem unorthodox, but when Jonny Bairstow, with a sweep and a roar, brought up the first ton by an English No. 3 in over two years (seven first drops and 31 Tests) it appeared to have worked.

For Bairstow, it was a moment of redemption and retribution. He felt “castigated” in the lead-up to the game, having missed the first Test through injury, and the second after his replacement, Ben Foakes, made himself undroppable.

Concerns over his workload can be allayed by the fact that his promotion to first drop would allow England to regularly deploy six bowlers, meaning Stokes would have to do little donkey work with the ball.

The West Indies at least offers Bairstow a chance to prove the stats wrong, and there is encouragement in how he has responded to adversity, whether perceived or real, throughout his career. In that vital recent 10-20 over period, the Caribbean sees the second most average seam and swing after England.

After his hundred in Colombo and a 98 in England’s second warm-up, Bairstow is likely to get the West Indies series to prove his worth at No.3. Should he struggle however, he is unlikely to find it any easier back on home soil.