The most recent addition was Kane Williamson, who scored his 30th Test century in February of this year against South Africa at Mount Maunganui. Only two other players on that list are still currently active in Test cricket, with Joe Root having scored his 33rd and 34th centuries this week at Lord's against Sri Lanka, and Steve Smith still on 32 in the middle of a rare hundred-less patch.

It's clear cut who the next player to reach the landmark is going to be. Virat Kohli currently has 29 Test centuries to his name, and with India due to play two Tests against Bangladesh in September, it's more than feasible he will have become the 17th member of the group by the end of next month. That would mean all of the 'Fab Four' will be part of the club. As for who's coming up behind them though, it's less clear who will follow in their footsteps.

Another batting masterclass from Joe Root at Lord’s!👏

He’s equalled Alastair Cook’s record of 33 Test centuries – the most for England in the format💯

Scorecard ➡️ https://t.co/7UGllgF7G5 pic.twitter.com/5TPb57wfzj

— Wisden (@WisdenCricket) August 29, 2024

Before his retirement, the most likely candidate was David Warner, who scored his 26th century in his final series as a Test cricketer. With his whites hung up, however, there's a huge gap to the currently active player with the most centuries behind him. Coming in 10 centuries behind on 16 are Dimuth Karunaratne and Angelo Mathews, with teammate Dinesh Chandimal just behind on 15. Realistically, when considering that all of those three are over 34 and the amount of Test cricket Sri Lanka play each year, none of them is going to bridge the gap to 30 hundreds before retirement.

Usman Khawaja is also on 15 centuries, largely thanks to his golden run since being recalled to the Australia side. He is, however, older than all three of the Sri Lanka trio above him, closing in on his 38th birthday. Australia will play 21 Test before Khawaja's 40th birthday at the end of 2026. Doubling the number of centuries he's scored since 2011 in that time looks out of reach.

The players after Khawaja with more than 10 centuries who are still under 35 are Tom Latham, Ben Stokes, Jonny Bairstow, Kraigg Brathwaite, Dhananjaya da Silva, Mominul Haque, and Marnus Labuschagne (Babar Azam has nine). Latham currently has 13 hundreds after 80 Test matches as the leader of the pack. That puts him not too far off Root after the same number of Test matches - who had 15 at that point - but some way off Williamson, who had 19 by that stage, and in a completely different ball park to Smith, who had 27. The number of Test matches New Zealand have in the schedule adds another layer of difficulty for Latham. New Zealand have 26 Tests scheduled until the middle of 2027, by which time Latham will be 35. Latham has also only scored two Test centuries in the last four years.

The scheduling problem will also affect De Silva, Mominul, and Brathwaite, all of whom are on 12 Test centuries. While all three are under 33, it would be a stretch for any to reach the 30 landmark. To make up the 18-century gap, all three would have to average around three tons per year or more and continue until their late 30s. It's unlikely any of them will manage it, but not completely impossible.

As for the English contingent, neither Stokes (13) or Bairstow (12) are likely to get there. Bairstow is currently outside of the England Test squad and about to turn 35, while Stokes has never scored more than two centuries in a calendar year. Labuschagne looks the most likely option of that group, on 11 centuries after 50 Tests, but is still at the bottom-end of where the 'Fab Four' were at the same stage. Root also had 11 but was four years younger when playing his 50th Test than Labuschagne is now. Smith and Williamson had 17 and 14 respectively by the 50 Test mark.

With that in consideration, rather than a bolter from the existing chasing pack, it's more likely the next player to cross the 30 landmark will be a younger, less established rising talent. A new group of players earmarked to take over the mantle has emerged over the last few years in the form of the likes of Shubman Gill, Harry Brook and more recently Yashasvi Jaiswal. It would be a safer bet to back one of those few even in the infancy of their careers, than those more established on the circuit.

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