England, now fourth on the 2023-25 World Test Championship points table, can still qualify for the final.
A fortnight ago, New Zealand and Bangladesh were both above England on the 2023-25 World Test Championship points table. Being swept 0-2 in their respective series resulted in them sliding down. As a result, England now find themselves at fourth place, behind India, Australia, and Sri Lanka.
England’s remaining matches at the 2023-25 World Test Championship
October 2024: Three Tests in Pakistan
November-December 2024: Three Tests in New Zealand
What needs to happen for England to qualify?
Six wins in six Tests will give England a PCT on 57.95 (a draw will bring that down to 54.92, a defeat to 53.41). Since that is less than the current PCTs of both India and Australia, England need help from other series.
Toppling Australia is easier for England for two reasons. One, India have a significantly higher PCT than Australia at this point. And two, while India and Australia clash in a five-Test series, India’s other assignment (against New Zealand at home) is easier than Australia’s (in Sri Lanka).
However, this is a tricky proposition, for there are two others in this game as well – Sri Lanka and South Africa. Sri Lanka are already above England. South Africa play only 12 Tests, which means that their PCT is more “sensitive” (will be affected more by every result) than teams who play more.
To complicate matters further, Australia play in Sri Lanka and Sri Lanka in South Africa. One-sided outcomes in any of these series will hurt England’s cause, for the winning side will overtake them.
Thus, it is best for England to expect both these series to be drawn 1-1. That will ensure Sri Lanka finish on 53.85, behind 57.95.
However, England will need more from South Africa, who also play in Bangladesh and host Pakistan. If South Africa win three of these four Tests, they will reach 52.78. Three wins and a draw will take them to 55.56. Both are behind 57.95.
That leaves the India-Australia series (remember, we have already assumed that Australia will draw 1-1 in Sri Lanka). A 3-2 Indian win will keep Australia to 55.26. Even a 2-2 draw will keep Australia to 57.02. That is the most England can afford.
Can the other teams catch up with 57.95? The most Bangladesh can reach is 56.25. New Zealand, 42.86 (they are losing 0-3 to England). Pakistan, 38.10 (same as New Zealand). And the West Indies, 43.59.
Thus, six wins will keep England safe from four sides. All they now need is Australia to draw 2-2 against India (or fare worse) and draw 1-1 in Sri Lanka and Sri Lanka to draw 1-1 in South Africa and South Africa to not win all four of their other Test matches.
Oh, and England need to be way of those pesky over rate penalties too...
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