Following their huge win over Pakistan in Multan, England have increased the gap to those below in the 2023-25 World Test Championship points table, and could still technically qualify for next year's final.
Ahead of the series, New Zealand and Bangladesh were both above England in the table, but both slid down after being beaten 2-0 in their respective series'. As a result, England moved up to fourth place behind India, Australia and Sri Lanka. Their win in Multan by an innings and 47 runs has seen their points percentage (PCT) increase to 45.59, ahead of fifth-placed South Africa on 38.39.
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Draw | Lost | Deduction | Points | PCT |
| 1 | India | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 98 | 74.24 |
| 2 | Australia | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 90 | 62.50 |
| 3 | Sri Lanka | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 60 | 55.56 |
| 4 | England | 17 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 93 | 45.59 |
| 5 | South Africa | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 28 | 38.89 |
| 6 | New Zealand | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 36 | 37.50 |
| 7 | Bangladesh | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 33 | 34.38 |
| 8 | West Indies | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 20 | 18.52 |
| 9 | Pakistan | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 16 | 16.67 |
England’s remaining matches at the 2023-25 World Test Championship
October 2024: Two further Tests in Pakistan
November-December 2024: Three Tests in New Zealand
What needs to happen for England to qualify?
Five wins in five Tests will give England a PCT on 57.95 (a draw will bring that down to 54.92, a defeat to 53.41). Since that is less than the current PCTs of both India and Australia, England need help from other series.
Toppling Australia is easier for England for two reasons. One, India have a significantly higher PCT than Australia at this point. And two, while India and Australia clash in a five-Test series, India’s other assignment (against New Zealand at home) should be less challenging than Australia’s (in Sri Lanka).
However, there are two other sides to consider in this game as well – Sri Lanka and South Africa. Sri Lanka are already above England. South Africa play only 12 Tests in the championship in total, which means that their PCT is more “sensitive” (will be affected more by every result) than teams who play more.
To complicate matters further, Australia have a series to play in Sri Lanka and Sri Lanka have one in South Africa. One-sided outcomes in any of these series will hurt England’s cause, for the winning side will overtake them.
Thus, it is best for England to hope that both these series are drawn 1-1. That will ensure Sri Lanka finish on 53.85, behind England's maximum of 57.95.
However, England will need more from South Africa, who also play in Bangladesh and host Pakistan. If South Africa win three of these four Tests, they will reach 52.78. Three wins and a draw will take them to 55.56. Both are behind 57.95.
That leaves the India-Australia series (remember, we have already assumed that Australia will draw 1-1 in Sri Lanka). A 3-2 India win will keep Australia to 55.26. Even a 2-2 draw will keep Australia to 57.02. That is the most England can afford.
Can the other teams catch up with 57.95? The most Bangladesh can reach is 56.25. New Zealand, 42.86 (they are losing 0-3 to England). Pakistan, 38.10 (same as New Zealand). And the West Indies, 43.59.
Thus, five wins will keep England safe from four sides. All they now need is Australia to draw 2-2 against India (or fare worse) and draw 1-1 in Sri Lanka, and for Sri Lanka to draw 1-1 in South Africa and South Africa to not win all four of their other Test matches.
Oh, and England need to be wary of those pesky over rate penalties too...
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